In the run up to the 2024 elections Trump famously promised to fix the economy. Since returning to the White House he has blamed his predecessor Joe Biden for any bad news.

Each passing day diminishes his ability to sell this and he has bragged about lower gas prices which has steered much of the good news about overall inflation.

Many of us believed his claim of prosperity was ultimately unsustainable but with his recent invasion of Iran it’s going to be much, much harder. It’s been less than a week since the war began and already crude oil prices have risen dramatically and a barrel is now over $90.00. Oil prices are famously volatile but since the war is in the Middle East it’s hard to imagine a scenario where prices will return.

Additionally today we learned that the US economy lost 92,000 jobs last month after predictions of gains. This number may be adjusted but it’s hard to imagine it will get much better.

Over the past year consumers have noticed that grocery prices have increased and Trump has famously denied its truth. It’s a little like the guy whose wife catches him with another woman and he responded: “Who are going to believe: me or your lying eyes?”

Eyes don’t lie