For the third election in a row I’m live blogging. I normally start at 5PM Pacific Time (where I live), 8PM Eastern Time, and 1AM Greenwich Mean Time. I try to update this each hour. It’s been a long race, and a difficult one to watch. There have been hundreds of polls, but like four years ago I’ve been following Nate Silver at Five Thirty Eight. He was spot on four years ago in his predictions, and as of right now he believes Secretary Clinton has a 71.4% chance of winning the elction.

5:00PM Pacific Time, 8:00PM Eastern, 0100 GMT. I’m getting my information from National Public Radio. There are no surprises. At this point it appears that Hillary will pick up the following states: Vermont (3), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), Maryland (10), Washington D.C. (3), and Delaware (3). Donald Trump should pick up Oklahoma (7), Indiana (11), Kentucky (8), and West Virginia (5). If my math is correct that gives Hillary 44 electoral votes and Donald 31. But the night is young.

The candidates always claim they are campaigning in all 50 states, but that’s not true. Most states were safe for one of the candidates and the race will come down to a few battleground states. I’m looking at Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida. I don’t have information on Pennsylvania, but as of right now Ohio shows Hillary ahead, 52.7% to 43.7%. Florida also shows Hillary ahead 49.2% to 47.8% and North Carolina has Hillary ahead 51.8% to 45.7%. These battlegrounds are far from settled and it’s much too early to read too much into these numbers.

I didn’t think my home state of Virginia would be a battleground, but as of now Donald is ahead 52.4% to 42.8%. That’s a surprise.

It’s now 5:50 and there’s a few updates. Hillary has picked up Rhode Island (4); Donald has picked up Tennessee (11), South Carolina (9) and Alabama (9). These are hardly surprising and as of right now Donald has 60 electoral votes to Hillary’s 48.

6:00PM Pacific Time, 9:00PM Eastern Time, 0200 GMT. This is the point in the evening when the Republican candidate rises fastest. It’s holding true here. Donald has been predicted the winner in Texas (38), Kansas (6), Wyoming (3), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), and Nebrasda (5). Hillary has picked up Illinois (20), New York (29), and Connecticut (7). If you look at the electoral map, Trump leads 129-97. Four years ago I was nervous and probably shouldn’t have been. Donald’s biggest state (Texas) is already in his category while Hillary’s biggest state (California) has polls open for another 2 hours. I’ll keep you posted.

I’m writing now at about 6:30 and at this time four years ago, Mitt Romney was leading President Obama 153 to 123. By about 7:00 it turned around and stayed there. I can only pray the pattern continues.

Last hour I spoke about Virginia. I grew up in Prince William County and it was pretty Republican when I lived there. It’s now more Democratic and I couldn’t be more proud. That said, I assumed Virginia would be safe for Hillary. But as I write this Donald is ahead 47.6% to 47.3%. Hillary had narrowed the gap but it’s hard to believe Donald will carry Virginia. If he does, Hillary probably needs to beat expectations somewhere else. I pray she does.

7:00PM Pacific Time, 10:00PM Eastern Time, 0300GMT. I promised myself I wouldn’t worry too much about the results, but I may have to break that promise. Since my last update Donald has won Missouri (10) and Louisiana (8) while Hillary picks up New Mexico (5).

My only note of optimism comes from the fact that Hillary is ahead in Virginia by a razor thin margin (47.7% to 47.2%). Hillary is trending ahead and at this late point the trend rarely reverses.

My pessimism is fed in the states of Michigan and Wisconsin. All the polls I watched had Hillary winning by a small but consistent margin. Most of the votes are not counted, but the early polling does not look good. This may be a long night.

Ok, it’s 7:40 and it appears that Hillary has won Virginia. This doesn’t guarantee she’ll win, but it makes it much better that she won’t lose. Keep posted.

8:00 Pacific Time, 11:00 Eastern Time, 0400GMT. OK by this time I hoped to declare Hillary the winner and go to bed. This isn’t going to happen. Donald picked up Montana (3), North Carolina (15) and Idaho (4) and Hillary picked up California (55). It’s going to be a long night. My apologies to the patients I visit tomorrow.

Almost a year ago I wrote that the Republican Party appeared to be falling apart. I wrote this against a backdrop of the birth of the GOP that came with the death of the Whig party.

Twelve months later it appears the GOP is fracturing into three different wings:

1. Government should do fewer things and do them better. Most people who identify as Republicans point here to explain why they are Republican. They don’t feel that the government has any business meddling in marriage, education, social engineering or a host of other areas. They point to the Constitution as their guiding principles. They don’t mind paying taxes to keep us safe, but they hate the idea of paying income taxes to support people who don’t want to work. They describes themselves as fiscal and social conservatives. Today these Republicans look to House Speaker Paul Ryan as their leader.
2. We are a Christian nation. This wing takes seriously the fact that our founders were Christians and the phrase “under God” appear on our money and the phase “In God We Trust” finds a place etched in many of our federal buildings. We are not merely one nation among others. We, the United States of America, are chosen by God to be the shining city upon the hill. This is both a blessing and a responsibility. It’s a responsibility because God will judge us based on our worthiness; because God chose us, God will also judge us on how we respond. If we become a nation that allows political correctness and gay marriage, God will withdraw His blessing. Our salvation as a nation depends on the direction we take. Today these Republicans look to Senator Ted Cruz as their leader.
3. We are under attack. These Republicans remember when being American meant leading the free world. If you were willing to work you could feed your family and own your own home. Other countries eagerly bought what we manufactured and “made in Japan” was code for “cheap.” But we’ve lost our place and other countries now dictate how we live. Time is running out and we need to reclaim our place now or risk losing it forever. Our attackers aren’t just foreign workers who take our jobs, they are also people who come into our country illegally and take our jobs. Our survival depends on our ability to keep out those who want our jobs (or want to plant bombs) but also our ability to recreate those jobs that made us great. This is not time for political correctness or business as usual. Your very survival depends on your willingness to give full power to one person who will fight for you. These Republicans look to Donald Trump.

OK, I’m a Democrat and I’ll admit that the death of the GOP doesn’t cause me much grief. But I recognize that our nation will never consist entirely of people who agree with me. And I pray that the conservative movement follows Paul Ryan instead of Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. I can respect that our government should do fewer things and do them better. But I can’t respect that our government should be a Christian caliphate or a Fascist Government.

I recognize that large swaths of the American people don’t trust Hillary because she’s been beaten up for alleged (but not proven) charges. I’m weary and unwilling to refute these false charges, but let me say this: She’s the only candidate who possesses the skills to lead our country. I’m voting for her because she’s the only candidate who can lead us.

As I write this we are 29 days from the next Presidential election. As I’m sure you know, Secretary Clinton is opening a lead over Mr. Trump. Most polls differ on her lead, but even Faux News shows Clinton with a lead.

But, as we know, the President isn’t elected by popular vote but by the Electoral College. I won’t wander too far into the weeds of how this works, but let me say this: each state gets a fixed number of electoral votes and they determine who wins the Presidency. Of the 50 states, 48 are “winner take all.” In other words if a candidate wins the majority of votes in that state, s/he wins all the electoral votes, no matter the margin of victory. Only Maine and Nebraska allow candidates to divide the electoral votes.

And as we found in the 2000 Presidential election it’s possible to win the popular vote and lose the electoral vote. In that election George W. Bush won the election even though Al Gore won the popular vote.

As I’ve been following this election I have to confess I haven’t paid much attention to national polls and have instead been looking at the electoral map. And I’ve been obsessed with two web pages with excellent content: Real Clear Politics and Five Thirty Eight.

Both track the electoral maps, but they do it in different ways: RCP looks at the polls in each state while 538 looks at the probability of each candidates’ winning a particular state.

As I write this RCP lists Clinton as winning 260 electoral votes, Trump winning 165, and 113 as tossups (could go either way). The toss up states are: Nevada (6 electoral votes), Arizona (11), Minnesota (10), Iowa (6), Ohio (18), Maine (2 of their 3), North Carolina (15), Georgia (16), and Florida (29).

Of these states, 538 projects Clinton the statistical favorite in all but Arizona, Iowa, and Georgia.

The winner next month needs to get to 270 electoral votes. Of the tossup states, Clinton needs to win only 10 more electoral votes. She can do this by winning only one of the following states: Arizona, Minnesota, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, or Florida. Or she could lose all those states and win both Nevada and Iowa. Trump, on the other hand, has to win 105 electoral votes. The fewest states he needs to win are these: Florida and Ohio and Georgia and North Carolina and Arizona and Minnesota and either Iowa or Nevada.

RCP also shows us a map with no tossups (that is, they look at the polling and choose a winner even if the numbers are close). It shows Clinton with 340 electoral votes and Trump with 198.

He’s got a tough rode to victory.

Monday we saw the debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

This was a night that both candidates (and their supporters) knew would advance the dialogue and perhaps impact the election. Hillary needed to thread the needle, sounding presidential without sounding bitchy (and yes, this word is sexist) or elitist. Donald needed to sound presidential without looking like a bully or a whiner.

By nearly every measure Hillary succeeded and Donald did not. He continued to lie without apology, asserting that he never supported the Iraqi war even though he did on the Howard Stern show. It’s become a tradition in the last several decades that we learn how much our candidates earned and paid in taxes. Four years ago Mitt Romney attempted to buck this trend but did release his returns after increased pressure and we learned that in 2011 his income was $13.7 million dollars (mostly from capital gains and interest on his investments) and he paid $1.9 million in federal taxes. The fact that he paid only 14.1% troubled many of us, but that’s the law. If you work for a living and live on your paychecks you will pay between 10% (if your income is low) and 39.6% (if your income is above $415,050 and you file as a single person). But if you have enough money to live on your savings your highest tax bill is 20%. In fairness Mitt lowered his tax bill from 20% to 14.1% because of his generosity to charities (including the Mormon church).

Many of us paid a higher rate. In 2015 Nancy and I, filing jointly, were in the 25% bracket and paid 16% due to our charitable donations. I don’t begrudge Mitt his good fortune, but I think that since Nancy and I worked for our income and Mitt sat back and collected wages from work he hasn’t done in years, he should pay more.

Nevertheless, I hold my greatest contempt for Donald. In the debate Hillary suggested that he’s not releasing his income tax returns because he has something to hide. I think she’s right. Maybe he’s not as rich as he says. Or maybe he’s not as generous as he says. But when she suggested that he’s hiding the truth from us because he didn’t pay a dime in federal taxes, he responded by stating: “That makes me smart,” and later, “it would be squandered, too, believe me.”

Does that mean he admits that he didn’t pay federal taxes? It’s hard to know and we’ve learned better than to ask him for clarification. But I believe it’s enough to assume this was a rare moment of honesty on his part. He tried to turn this to his advantage but it backfired.

If he believes that not paying your fair share of taxes is a sign of intelligence, does that make the rest of us who do pay taxes are stupid? If that’s true he needs to pray that the rest of us don’t become as smart as him because government can’t run on nothing. If we all become as smart as Donald there will be no money to support our troops or veterans. You have to figure Isis is salivating over this.

Do you know someone who depends on free school lunches for necessary nutrition? Yeah, they’re going to be hungry.

Do you like being able to take law enforcement on our borders for granted? Give that up. How about the men and women who make sure nobody gets on a plane with a gun? They’re now unemployed. Do you like visiting national parks? They’re gone, or at least the people who make sure have a place enjoy.

How many of you use freeways or highways to go to work or visit loved ones? Didn’t you know they are part of a federal program from the 1950s? Fair enough, you’ve had the luxury of ignoring how they are maintained. Now you need to either slow down for the potholes or get a much stronger suspension system for your car. Or both.

Let’s pray that we are smart enough not to vote for Donald.