In the last several elections I’ve live blogged the results of the Presidential campaign. Alas, four years ago I got so depressed the prospect of the Trump election that I gave up around 8:00 PM and went to bed. Today’s election may not be decided tonight given the large number of absentee ballots. I’ll stay up as long as I can. I get my information from a number of different venues. In the last few months I’ve been following Nate Silver’s Five Thirty Eight blog. He gives Vice President Biden an 89% chance of winning, but four years ago he gave Hillary Clinton a 71% chance of winning so we’ll see. I also follow 270 To Win. In terms of the media I follow CNN, NBC and National Public Radio. Fasten your seatbelts.

3PM West Coast, 6PM East Coast, 11PM GMT As of now, no polls have closed and we don’t have any projections. As in previous years there are states that are safe for President Trump and states that are safe for Vice President Biden, and there are states that are considered “swing states.” Victory will be decided by who wins those states. I’m currently looking at three states that Secretary Clinton was expected to win in 2016: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. They all went to Mr. Trump and swung the election. Additionally there are states that are normally swing states: Florida and Ohio. Mr. Trump won both of them. Vice President Biden hopes to win most of these states and also hopes to flip Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona. Next post when I get more news. Some polls close in a few hours.

5PM West Coast, 8PM East Coast, 1AM GMT Polls closed in Georgia, Kentucky, Vermont, Indiana, South Carolina, Virginia an hour ago. North Carolina, West Virginia and Ohio closed 30 minutes ago. Now the polls close in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Washington D.C., Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Tennessee. As of now, NPR has projected Kentucky and West Virginia for President Trump and Vermont and Virginia for Vice President Biden. No surprise, but most races are too close to call and I expect that won’t change for several hours, and perhaps not even tonight. I keep going back and forth from NPR and NBC and there are differences, but as for now I’m sticking with NPR (who is following the Associated Press).

6PM West Coast, 9PM East Coast, 2AM GMT Polls continue to close and several states continue to be too close to call. Here’s what NPR (who reports from the AP) are calling:

Republican States:

• Alabama
• Arkansas
• Indiana
• Kansas
• Kentucky
• Mississippi
• North Dakota
• Oklahoma
• South Carolina
• South Dakota
• Tennessee
• West Virginia
• Wyoming

Democratic States:

• Connecticut
• Delaware
• Illinois
• Maryland
• Massachusetts
• New Jersey
• New Mexico
• New York
• Rhode Island
• Vermont
• Virginia
• Washington D.C.

There are no surprises, but some of the “leaning states” give me hope for the rest of the night. My biggest surprise? As I write this, Texas is reporting 63% of the vote is in and Vice President Biden is leading by a very small margin. If he wins Texas, it’s game over for President Trump.

8PM Pacific, 11PM Eastern, 4AM GMT The more I hear, the less I can predict. As I write this Vice President Biden is ahead in the AP forecast, 209 electoral votes to 112 for President Trump. Clearly some of these predictions are based on past voting patterns and that causes some concerns. The path to 270 electoral votes twists through several close states. One of the reasons we likely won’t have a declared winner tonight lies in the fact that several states will need a day or two to count absentee or mail in ballots. President Trump has spent months attempting to claim that these votes are invalid but he’s wrong. It’s hard to know how much longer I should stay awake and keep watching.

9PM Pacific, 12AM Eastern, 05AM GMT This election appears to be closer than we had hoped. President Trump has spent weeks claiming that absentee votes are fraudulent. They aren’t. But in the COVID world many of us chose not to vote in person. And since Democrats are more likely to listen to science we were more likely to vote by mail We can only hope that these ballots will count and Trump and his minions will not successfully use the courts to invalidate them.

As I write his we go to the polls in 71 days. At least some of us will: because of COVID 19 many will fill out mail in ballots and either mail them in or drop them off.

I haven’t written much about this because, frankly, it’s been a hard campaign to watch. Campaigns have always shown the differences between the candidates, and often times the divisions. But this campaign has been the worst I’ve seen.

I’ll confess by bias, but in the last 3 1/2 years President Trump has mishandled nearly every event of that time. My greatest fears of his Presidency have come true.

He has alienated our allies and fawned the approval of our enemies. He has exploded both the budget deficit and the national debt. He has chosen to used his power to settle scores instead of advancing American interests.

And finally, instead of listening to smart people about battling COVID he has advanced silly claims (e.g. hydroxychloroquin and oleander). He’s also attempted to divert attention by blaming the Chinese and calling it Kung Flu.

At this point Vice President Biden leads in the polls but I can’t relax for two reasons. First, four years ago at this time I was convinced Secretary Clinton would win and it didn’t. But also I fear that if President Trump is defeated he simply won’t leave the White House.

A few days ago Mark Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff was asked if the armed forces would move in if the President refuses to leave (they won’t). But the fact that he was asked the question is telling.

It’s going to be long 71 days (and perhaps longer). Stay tuned.

This morning we learned that Senator Bernie Sanders has suspended his campaign. Presidential campaigns are famously marathons and not sprints. Last June I began the Election 2020 Chronicles with two Republican candidates and twenty Democratic candidates.

President Trump was always the presumptive Republican nominee but the Democratic field was wide open. Back then the fear among us Democrats was that the field was so crowded they would strangle each other, or to use a popular image, form a circular firing squad. On February 12th I suggested that Bernie may defeat former Vice President Joe Biden and give President Trump the opponent he wanted.

Bernie famously describes himself as a “Democratic Socialist” and that has always troubled me. A Socialist government owns the means of production and all citizens are government employees. Workers are allowed to own property and choose their jobs but there is no private industry. Critics (like me) of socialism believe that, for instance, if the government owned the auto industry we’d all still be driving Model T’s. Without the competition that Capitalism provides there’s no advantage to improve.

This is not what Bernie suggests. He does want Medicare for all, but even Medicare isn’t socialized medicine simply because doctors are not government employees. But the Republican playbook salivated at the idea of running against a Socialist. They would blow fear into the electorate by claiming Bernie would take all of their freedom away from them. It might have worked.

Now comes the next challenge: convincing Bernie’s supporters to support Joe. When Bernie ran against Hillary Clinton in 2016 many of Bernie’s supporters felt they couldn’t support Hillary because the Democratic National Committee conspired against Bernie. Frankly, they had a point.

My hope going forward lies with the warm relationship between Bernie and Joe. I hope that, unlike 2016, Bernie’s supporters will feel better about voting for Joe. If they don’t we may well have another 4 years of Trump.

Clearly the Election Chronicles 2020 will skew toward the Democrats because only William Weld has the courage to run against President Trump and the Republican nomination is a given.

Less than a year ago I listed 20 candidates for the Democratic nominee and many of us feared that their campaigns would beat up each other and Democrats wouldn’t coalesce, giving President Trump a path to his reelection.

I’m feeling better now.

Early in the race the candidates divided into two camps: moderates and “socialists.” I put socialists in quotations because none of them were true socialists. In a socialist society the government owns the means of production and everyone who works is a government employee. If you’re a doctor you work for the government. If you build cars you work for the government (and there is no Ford or Honda or GM. There is only government built cars). In short there are no private employees.

In any case, in the last month or so several candidates have dropped out leaving the race between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. And frankly, Bernie really doesn’t have a realistic path toward the nomination and will probably suspend his campaign in the next few days.

The Biden campaign needs to figure out its next step. Four years ago the supporters of Bernie Sanders felt that their candidate was pushed out unfairly by Hillary Clinton and the Democratic establishment (and in fairness they were right) and many of them stayed home on election day. I hope that Joe Biden can reach out to them and say this:

“OK, I get that your support for Bernie Sanders didn’t end up with his nomination. I get that I’m not your first choice. But I also hope that you aren’t looking for another four years of President Trump. If you vote for me I promise that I will work hard to ensure that you have health care. If we are still suffering from this pandemic I will work hard to ensure that our health care workers are safe and able to care for the sick. And assuming we are still suffering from a recession I’ll work to regain confidence in our economy. I’ve been this way before. The last time a Republican President left office we were in the middle of the Great Recession. The only reason it didn’t become the Second Great Depression was because President Obama and I pushed legislation through Congress that turned things around and started the bull market that the current President claims credit for.”

Overwhelmingly the Democratic candidates who suspended their campaigns have endorsed Joe. Democrats like myself need to joint Team Biden. At the beginning of the campaign I supported New Jersey Senator Corey Booker. I’m not sure why but his campaign never took off. When he dropped out I moved my chips to South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg. The weekend before the California primary Mayor Pete suspended his campaign and I voted for Joe Biden.

If you’re reading this I ask that you vote for the person who can defeat Donald Trump.

I had hoped to post after the South Carolina primary on Saturday, February 29th and before Super Tuesday yesterday. Alas, it didn’t happen.

The days since Super Tuesday are all about former Vice President Joe Biden. Before South Carolina many of us assumed his campaign was in trouble because he did poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Nearly from the beginning of the 2020 campaign Democrats have had to choose between two lanes: mainstream and far left. Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren advocated dramatic changes in health care and higher education. They weren’t satisfied with the Affordable Care act and student loans: they wanted Medicare for all and student loan forgiveness. Joe Biden, Amy Klobuchar, and Pete Buttigieg argued to continue the President Obama’s agenda. All candidates wished to defeat President Trump and reverse his xenophobia and his disrespect for his office. All candidates pledged to free immigrant children from cages and reverse the policy that demanded that political refugees return to dangerous and filthy conditions in Mexico.

I’m a Democrat in the mainstream lane. I’ve never felt comfortable with Bernie or Elizabeth but I wold have happily voted for anyone who ran against President Trump. That said, I’m thrilled with how well Joe has done since Saturday.

After Iowa and New Hampshire Joe needed not only a win in South Carolina, he needed a big win. He got it. He beat Bernie 48% to 20%. After his win opponents, Pete Buttigieg, and Amy Klobuchar exited the race. This was good news for Joe Biden as both of them endorsed him.

This gave him the momentum going into Super Tuesday and his victory moved him into the frontrunner. In the last few days Pete, Amy, Michael Bloomburg, and Elizabeth Warren have left the campaign. I appreciate their patriotism and their willingness to suspend their campaigns in favor of coalescing around one candidate who can beat President Trump.

The race for the Democratic nominee comes down to Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.

Next week: Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, and Washington.

Stay tuned.

Last night I reported on the results of the New Hampshire primary. Unlike Iowa, these results came to us clearly and soon. Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, and Amy Klobuchar did well.

To the surprise of many, Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren did poorly.

Primaries tell voters who to vote for but they also tell voters who they shouldn’t work for. Since last night we’ve learned that Andrew Yang, Deval Patrick, and Michael Bennett suspended their campaigns. I give props to Andrew, Deval, and Michael while recognizing that none of them saw a road to the White House.

A year ago I looked at Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren as the favorites to defeat President Trump. Now, in February of 2020 it appears neither of them will win the Democratic nomination. Most Democrats will vote for anyone who can defeat President Trump and voters in Iowa and New Hampshire have expressed that they will vote for someone President Trump can defeat.

In the next few weeks voters in Nevada and South Carolina will vote. Both states have voters who aren’t as white as Iowa and New Hampshire. We’ll see how our candidates will do with black and brown voters.

On March 3rd I (as a Californian) will have a vote on Super Tuesday.

As I write this the polls in New Hampshire have been closed for 2 1/2 hours. There will probably be more to write tomorrow morning, but I wanted to share my thoughts tonight.

Every four years political parties choose their candidates but in reality only two parties really matter: Democrats and Republicans.

Clearly the Republicans will nominate President Trump and frankly I feel no need to cover his campaign, only because it’s a fait accompli.

But the Democratic field doesn’t give us a path forward. Months ago we expected that Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren would dominate.

Bernie has done well in both Iowa and New Hampshire but I think many of us were surprised by the poor showing of Joe and Elizabeth. And I’ve been pleased by the success of Pete Buttigieg.

Pete has limited political experience and he’s openly gay and I recognize that many Americans don’t see him as a viable candidate. But I do. As a moderate Democrat I don’t want us to become socialist and I don’t want a revolution. I just want someone who will reverse the damage of the current administration and give us a path forward to care about the young, the elderly, the poor, and the sick. I want someone that knows we were all once young, we (hopefully) will all be elderly, we may someday be poor, and we will all be sick.

Tonight we learned that Democratic candidates Andrew Yang and Michael Bennet have suspended their campaigns. It’s not a surprise and I’ve been waiting for them and others to suspend their campaigns. For those of us who haven’t voted it’s hard to see the candidates we support drop out, but that’s what happens.

As a Californian I recognize that Nevada and South Carolina will make their choices before I can but I hope that my ballot on March 3rd will give me viable candidates I can support.