As I write this we are a short (!) 464 days until election day 2024. It’s often been said that it’s a marathon, not a sprint, and it’s true. There hasn’t been an update in the candidates I’m following but I’ve included that part of my page. I have hopes of placing a countdown clock in this space but I haven’t yet found anything that works.
So here’s my update on day 464 until:
On the Democratic side, President Biden continues to lead the small pack. I have to confess I haven’t heard anything from Marianne Williamson but her web page is still active and she’s still collecting donations. Meanwhile, Robert Kennedy Jr. continues to find ways to make news without making him look like a lunatic and continues to fail. He recently suggested a conspiracy that COVID was targeted to spare Jews from getting sick. He later claimed this was not meant to be antisemitic. A few days ago he claimed that even though he is running for President he has been denied Secret Service protection. The Secret Service does provide protection for candidates but they determine when it’s appropriate (for example they protected candidate Barack Obama because of credible threats because of his race). But here RFK Jr. claims that the President is blocking them from protecting him. It’s true that both is father and his uncle were assassinated and that must be taken into account. But, as always, he cries conspiracy at every turn.
The Republican side is more interesting, if not new. Former President Trump continues to hold a sizeable lead even though he’s been charged with 37 indictments for his mishandling of classified documents. With the exception of former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, his opponents either supports Trump’s claim of innocence or have remained silent. Despite the indictments Trump continues to raise money and has not lost much support. On the other hand he’s continuing to have trouble attracting independents. I suspect that the other Republicans are hoping something happens to Trump to remove him from the campaign. That will allow them to gain support without appearing disloyal to Trump’s supporters.
This isn’t exactly the level of courage I look for in leadership but they are not a courageous bunch. Playing the waiting game and hoping outside forces put you in the driver’s seat is no way to run a campaign, or a country for that matter.
It’s going to be a long 464 days.
I have to admit that this one caught me by surprise: Miami Mayor Frances Suarez has announced he is running for the Republican nominee for President. I have to confess he doesn’t sound much different than the rest of the field. I’ve linked to his campaign page but it appears ask for money and do little else. We’ll see how it turns out.
This may be a good time to ask why so many Republicans are running, particularly since Donald Trump currently runs so far ahead. Well, here’s my theory: I’ve discussed (and will continue to discuss) his many legal troubles; he’s also 77 years old and eats a poor diet. There is a distinct possibility that something outside of the voters will end his campaign and I think his competitors hope his exit will begin their rise.
This certainly explains why most of them are loathe to criticize him. They all know he has a loyal base who they don’t wish to anger. They know they can’t beat him with votes but want to be ready if he’s arrested (or flees) or has a health crisis.
In any case here’s the lineup:
Since he first announced his run for President we’ve known that Donald Trump believes that rules and laws apply to other people and nothing he does is wrong. He is the only President to be impeached twice for clear wrongdoing; he successfully hid behind his office. But it appears his hubris may have reached its limit.
In March he was indicted by the state of New York for falsifying business records; a woman named Stephanie Clifford (stage name Stormy Daniels) claimed to have had an affair with Mr. Trump. Trump then directed money to buy her silence and claimed it was money paid to his attorney.
But he has since been indicted on far more serious charges. When a President leaves office virtually all his papers belong to the National Archives and special care is given to memos classified as Confidential, Secret and Top Secret. There’s always a fair amount of chaos when a President leaves office and it’s not unheard of for someone to accidentally remove documents that should have stayed. When President Trump left the White House on January 20, 2021 he directed boxes to be taken to his residence in Florida. When the National Archives noticed documents were missing they asked the Trump team to produce them. Trump refused. Trump was then issued a subpoena demanding those documents. Again he refused. He then directed his lawyers to either deny they exist or hide them to make sure they weren’t found. In August of last year the FBI obtained a search warrant as they believe Trump still has documents that belong to the National Archives; they search his residence and find 102 classified documents.
You can read the full text of the indictment here. It’s remarkably short and readable and I recommend everyone read it. Please note: if you haven’t read it and want to give me your opinion I won’t listen.
So where do we go from here? These are serious charges and he could end up doing serious prison time if he’s convicted. But he has a history of using social pressure and money to avoid taking responsibility for his actions. He’s claiming that he’s being singled out because he’s running for President and the whole thing is unfair. It’s been good for his popularity and fundraising but won’t make any difference as his case goes on.
At this point he has a few choices:
- He can go to trial and hope to be acquitted. But he runs the risk of being convicted and sentenced. I don’t see him doing this
- He can instruct his lawyers to bargain for a lighter sentence. In other words he pleads guilty to a lesser charge that will give him a lighter sentence. This would require him to admit guilt. Again, I don’t see him doing this.
- He can plead “no contest.” This means he avoids admitting guilt but does not fight the charges and he accepts that he will be sentenced. Vice President Spiro Agnew famously used this plea in 1973. To the extent that this does not absolve him of the charges I don’t see him doing this.
- Similarly a defendant can use the “Alford plea.” Here the defendant also does not admit guilt but recognizes that there is enough evidence to convict him. Once again this does not allow him to avoid being sentenced and I can’t see him agreeing to this.
So what will he do? I’ve been miserably wrong in all my predictions but I think he’ll run. Much like Edward Snowden I believe he’ll find a way to get to Russia and seek asylum from Vladimir Putin. Furthermore I believe that he kept many of those documents as a type of “currency” to get Putin to allow him in.
I know that’s a pretty serious charge but I believe nothing matters to Trump more than saving his own skin. When he was arraigned he wasn’t required to surrender his passport. If that happens you heard it here first.
While the Democratic field for the 2024 Presidential election appears pretty stable, the Republican field keeps getting bigger and bigger. Former President Donald Trump continues to be the front runner but his legal troubles continue to pile up. It appears that the other candidates are banking that at some point he won’t be able to continue his candidacy and they are hoping to be positioned to take the mantle. Some are critical of Mr. Trump, others are not. But all of them know that something will have to happen for them to have a shot.
As of now here is the lineup:
For several months now we’ve known that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was planning a run for the Republican nomination for President, and a few days ago he made it official. He’s been a strong supporter of Donald Trump and he probably hoped that Trump wouldn’t run in 2024 but instead would endorse him. Yea, I don’t think any serious person thought Trump would move over for anyone.
Unlike some of his early opponents it’s easy to see where DeSantis is planting his flag. He believes that homosexuality is evil and that young people can be “groomed” into that lifestyle. In other words he claims the need for laws that will “protect our children.” He has signed legislation that makes it illegal for elementary and high schools to teach about LGBT issues; he believes this education should come from parents and not from schools.
It is no surprise that the LGBT community and their supporters see this a way to drive them further into the closet and return is to the days of state sanctioned discrimination. The Disney corporation has expressed its opposition and this has led DeSantis to “reign in” Disneyworld. I’ll certainly have more to say about this as the campaign continues.
Here is the current lineup:
This will likely keep happening over the next few weeks and months. Tim Scott is now officially a candidate for the Republican nomination for President. He is currently a Senator from South Carolina and is the only Black Republican Senator. You can read for yourself but he’s running on a popular platform: control immigration, restore traditional values, etc. He enjoys some name recognition partly because of his race. His challenge in the next months will be to differentiate himself from others and raise serious money.
Stay tuned, there will be more announcements in the coming days. In the meantime here is the updated field:
The ability to vote and choose our leaders has laid the foundation for our democracy since 1776. But not everybody has been allowed to cast a vote. We have seen, however, legal and illegal roadblocks throughout our history. Our Constitution has been amended three times to expand voter eligibility:
The 14th Amendment (1868) was passed shortly after the Civil War. Among other things it granted citizenship to former slaves and since only citizens can vote it granted voter eligibility to former male slaves.
The 19th Amendment (1920) allowed women to vote.
The 26th Amendment (1971) lowered the minimum age for voting to 18.
With the 2024 election just 18 months away we already have a candidate who wants to restrict voting. Republican Vivek Ramaswamy has proposed a change. Under his plan the voting age would be raised to 25 with exceptions for emergency responders, anyone who served at least six months in the military, or anyone who passes the naturalization exam.
This is purely a political move, a way to attract attention. Since it will need a Constitutional amendment it’s unlikely to go anywhere but it got him some publicity.
But it does point to a troubling trend. If it were to pass it would be the first time we shrank eligibility and made voting more exclusive. It’s also no coincidence that Republicans don’t poll well among young people but they do poll well among members of the military.
I predict that this will not be the last Republican attempt to disenfranchise voters they don’t like. Instead of appealing to them it’s easier to get rid of them.
Yes,it’s that time again. We are a little less than 18 months from the next Presidential election. We’re only six months out from the last Congressional election and 30 months since the last Presidential election and already we’re gearing for November 2024. Hard to believe that in 1960 John Kennedy announced his candidacy on January 2, 1960 and eight years later his brother Robert announced his bid for the 1968 election on March 16, 1968.
Since 2016 I’ve made a few changes. I no longer list the candidates on the left side; elections come and go and I like the continuity of keeping the look of the page the same. Also I used to list everyone I could find who was running, including independents. I started doing it to give at least some publicity to people who didn’t have the resources to run a national campaign. Unfortunately I found most of them were people in need of either stronger medication or more supervision.
The list of candidates is fluid; new people announce while others see the handwriting on the wall and drop out. As major candidates announce I’ll link to their web pages.
This is the beginning of a long road. We assume several others will run but they have not announced. I’ll update when they do.