Author Archives: tom

The Trump Chronicles, Volume 6: Secretary of State Is Not a Reality Game

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Certain truths are given. The sun rises in the East. Climate change is real. And the transition team for a new president is a messy, competitive, complicated mess. The President Elect attempts to develop a team who will implement his plans. His transition team also has desires and loyalties, both for themselves and their allies. And a large pool of people from various places imagine themselves in positions of power. It happens every four years.

But as we know, nothing about this campaign or transition is normal. At first blush it appears normal, but there is one aspect that causes me concern: the choice for Secretary of State. At this point it appears to be a race between Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney.

It appears the job will belong to one of these two men. And it shows a split among the Republicans. Rudy’s supporters point to last March when Mitt called Don a phony and a fraud, and urged Republicans to oppose him. They believe Rudy will be loyal to Don’s agenda. Mitt’s supporters point to Rudy’s paychecks from foreign nations and claim he cannot fully advocate this county’s foreign policy while ignoring his own agenda.

But my concern is different: I’m afraid President Elect Trump is treating this as a reality show.

For over a decade before his presidential run, Don starred in a “reality show” called The Apprentice. In different seasons he pitted ordinary people and washed up celebrities against each other and personally chose the winner. The show did well because he was able to manipulate and play off the drama of people competing for his favor. It was good for the ratings but it was also good for his ego. I suspect the enjoyment he received from being the decider first gave him the idea of running for President.

And when I read the news reports of Rudy v. Mitt, I fear Don is doing the same thing. I fear that Don’s choice won’t rest on the question of who will better form and implement our foreign policy, but on who can best grovel to Don.

I hope I’m wrong.

The Trump Chroicles, Volume 5: He Breaks His First Promise

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Dozens of times on the campaign trail President Elect Donald Trump encouraged the chant: “Lock her up!” He was, of course, speaking about Hillary Clinton.

His campaign, and much of the Republican Party, insisted that she was guilty of various crimes even though multiple investigations found no wrongdoing.

In the course of the third debate, on October 9th, he pledged that he would direct his Attorney General to appoint a Special Prosecutor to investigate her use of a private email server.

Today he responded by telling the New York Times “never mind.”

So what’s a Trump supporter supposed to do? As I write this, if you google “lock her up” you’ll get 9,990,000 responses. It’s actually kind of fun to read some of the articles.

The National Review, a conservative magazine founded by William F. Buckley said this: “If there is anything more to Donald Trump than bluster, we have yet to see it. Trump has not even been sworn in as president, and he already is walking away from campaign promises that are too hard to keep, starting with his pledge to pursue the case against Hillary Rodham Clinton.”

The conservative website Heat Street announced that the swamp won. In a previous post I spoke about his promise to “drain the swamp.” Clearly they are not happy.

Here’s what I’ll say: If you voted for Mr. Trump this is far from your last betrayal. All Presidents make promises they find they can’t keep once they get in office (and in humility I’ll recognize President Obama promised to close the prison at Guantanamo).

But I always believed President Obama was sincere in his promises. Mr. Trump, to my thinking, makes promises not because he expected to keep them, but to gain popularity. I think his enthusiasm for phrases like “lock her up,” “build the wall” and others were never true campaign promises and he never really meant to keep them.

In the next four years I believe that Mr. Trump’s supporters are going to find it more and more difficult and painful to support him.

By the way, I encourage everyone to read this article from Robert Reich.

The Trump Chronicles, Volume 4: He's Baaaaack

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During the campaign many of us worried that President Elect Donald Trump was too thin skinned to be our President. His middle of the night tweets and name calling of his opponents caused us to worry that he didn’t have the temperament to lead our nation.

We were told that once elected he would become more presidential and in the immediate days after the election we did not see the rants that caused us concern. He wanted us to believe that he had matured and gained a respect for the office he will soon occupy.

Despite our skepticism we hoped he was right. This past Friday, Vice President Elect Michael Pence attended the Broadway play Hamilton and Mr. Trump fed our gravest concerns.

History buffs like me celebrate the fact that a play about Alexander Hamilton creates buzz. Anything that informs Americans about our history is a good thing.

And I applaud Mr. Pence for attending. At the end of the play, during the curtain call, the actor who played Aaron Burr, Brandon Victor Dixon, read this to Mr. Pence:

Vice President Elect Pence, we welcome you and truly thank you for joining us here at “Hamilton: An American Musical.” We really do. We, sir, we, are the diverse America who are alarmed and anxious that your new administration will not protect us, our planet, our children, our parents, or defend us and uphold our inalienable rights, sir. But we truly hope that this show has inspired you to uphold our American values and work on behalf of all of us. Again we truly thank you for sharing this show, this wonderful American story told by a diverse group of men, women of different colors, creeds and orientations.

While Mr. Pence was gracious, Mr. Trump was not. Once again he took to Twitter to charge that the cast was “very rude” and demanded that they apologize.

When asked about this, Kellyanne Conway responded by asking why anyone should care.

Ms. Conway, here’s why we should care: Mr. Trump has shown us again and again that his thin skin occupies too much of his attention. The job of President will require him to “keep his eye on the ball” and not be distracted by the petty events.

Frankly I believe that Mr. Dixon showed incredible respect and restraint and I applaud him and the cast of Hamilton.

Starting on January 20, 2017 Mr. Trump take on a responsibility that should consume his attention 24/7. I, along with the cast of Hamilton, and many other Americans, fear that he will focus his attention on settling petty scores instead of ruling our nation.

The Trump Chronicles, Volume 3: Thoughts on Draining the Swamp

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For decades we’ve been hearing about term limits on politicians. I think it’s a bad idea but the quaint concept of the “gentleman farmer” who serves briefly and returns to the farm doesn’t appear to be leaving soon.

Never seeing a populist movement he didn’t like, President Elect Donald Trump has recently proclaimed: “Drain the Swamp,” or impose term limits on Congress.

I think term limits are a bad idea because there is a learning curve to governing and right now the more experienced representatives (who, by the way, keep coming back because their constituents like them) mentor the new ones. They have the institutional memory but with term limits they go away. This places the institutional memory with career staffers and lobbyists. I have a great deal of faith with the staffers but if the representatives are still learning the job, the lobbyists have an unfair advantage.

Anyway, back to the swamp. While not true, it’s a common belief that Washington D.C. was built on a swamp. This makes “draining the swamp” a good bumper sticker.

When I grew up in nearby Virginia we thought of swamps as bad places, breeding grounds for mosquitoes and places unfit for swimming or boating. Draining a swamp was seen as progress.

But in the years since, we’ve learned that swamps are critical to the ecosystem and now call them wetlands. And we’ve learned that draining swamps is a bad idea. In 2005 the city of New Orleans suffered horrific floods with Hurricane Katrina. The horrific flooding was caused not just by the rain, but also because of a storm surge that previous wetlands would have stopped. You can read an excellent article here. Basically there were several causes of the disappearance of the wetlands but the result was clear: New Orleans was decimated by Katrina because the wetlands (swamps) were not there to protect it.

As a postscript, Mr. Trump’s nominees include Senator Jeff Sessions who has been a senator since 1997, Mike Pompeo who has been a representative since 2011, and Reince Priebus who, as RNC chairman has lived in Washington since 2011. I guess they won’t be drained.

The Trump Chronicles, Volume 2: This May Begin the Hard Days

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As I write this we are in day 8 of President Elect Trump’s plan for his administration. These transitions always look a little chaotic as the President Elect chooses his cabinet and senior advisors. Trial balloons are released and shot down, old friends and colleagues jockey for positions, and anonymous leaks to the press rocket up.

That said, this process appears unusually chaotic. There are several examples, but let me choose one: New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. During the primary process he was one of the first ex-competitors to endorse Mr. Trump (February 26th).

Mr. Trump rewards loyalty and Mr. Christie’s background in law enforcement appeared to give him an advantage in running the Department of Justice as Attorney General.

A few days ago Mr. Christie was “purged” from the transition team with little explanation. Frankly, I originally thought Mr. Christie was seen as tainted because of his involvement in bridgegate and that now appears to be wrong.

There is good reason to believe that his sudden exit has more to do with something that happened in 2005. Mr. Trump’s son in law is Jared Kushner and has become one of Mr. Trump’s closest advisors.

Mr. Kushner’s father, Charles Kushner is a real estate developer. In 2005 he was convicted of making illegal campaign contributions, tax evasion and witness tampering and sentenced to two years in federal prison (he served one). The prosecutor? The United States Senator from the District of New Jersey, Chris Christie.

I guess it’s true that revenge is a dish best served cold.

I don’t make this point to say that Mr. Christie’s past has come back to haunt him, but to say that Mr. Trump’s son in law has harbored this grudge. In a well run campaign and transition, Mr. Christie would never have been seen as a serious candidate for Attorney General. His sudden fall from grace shows that the transition team has little temperament for the job ahead.

The Trump Chronicles, Volume 1: It's Time to Turn the Page

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As I write this it’s been a week since President Elect Donald Trump won the Electoral College 290 to 232.

Many of us, including myself, have spent the last seventeen months telling ourselves and everyone else that this day would never happen. We believed that in the second decade of the 21st Century the American people would never support someone who was racist, misogynist and a xenophobe. Further we would never elect someone with no experience in governing.

We were wrong. We failed to recognize that a scary large percentage of our population had grown so angry at their perception that government doesn’t work for them that they would vote for Donald Trump. We fear that he will attempt to keep his promises and build a wall between the United States and Mexico, deport millions of immigrants, and ban Muslims from entering the United States.

And so what do we do? Many cities, including my own San Diego have seen protests. Much as I sympathize with the feelings of the protesters, I don’t see the point. Nothing anyone can do will change the fact that he will lead our nation from January 20, 2017 until January 20, 2021. Much as we disagree with the election result, we need to accept it.

But that doesn’t condemn us to our silence. This past May James Fallows, a writer for The Atlantic magazine, decided to chronicle Donald Trumps’s campaign. An admitted Democrat he decided that history would benefit from a “time capsule,” a diary of his campaign. He felt that when history is written about this time, historians will benefit from this type of diary.

I propose to do the same. I’ve been writing this blog since November 6, 2004 and it’s taken many paths. I’ve lived through (and voted for) several presidents. I’ve voted for both winners and losers. But I think this election is different. I think Donald Trump is bad for America and bad for our planet. I’ve created a new category, the “Trump Chronicles” where I propose to keep him honest. For the next four years I commit to regularly blog on his promises vs. his results. I don’t do this because I believe he cares about me and those like me, but because he can’t deny a simple fact: those who didn’t vote for him are still Americans and he is accountable to us too.

Stay tuned.

The Election Chronicles, Volume 39: What Happened?

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Several of you noticed that after promising a long night of blogging last week, I stopped after 8PM.

This shouldn’t be a surprise but when the tide turned toward President Elect Trump I just couldn’t keep watching. I went to bed praying for a miracle that didn’t happen. Between then and now I’ve just not been able to sit down and write about it.

I know my experience isn’t unique, but I spent the days and weeks before the election convincing my friends and family that Don would never be elected and that the future looked bright. The fact that I’m joined by politicians, pollsters, and analysts gives me no comfort.

I find comfort in only this: The next four years are going to be difficult and painful for our country, but they are going to be particularly painful for Don. He’s going to find, to his horror, that he can’t fire Congress when they get in his way and that much of what he advocates will cost us dearly (both financially and morally). And he’ll have no one to blame but himself.

The Election Chronicles, Volume 38: It’s Finally Here

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For the third election in a row I’m live blogging. I normally start at 5PM Pacific Time (where I live), 8PM Eastern Time, and 1AM Greenwich Mean Time. I try to update this each hour. It’s been a long race, and a difficult one to watch. There have been hundreds of polls, but like four years ago I’ve been following Nate Silver at Five Thirty Eight. He was spot on four years ago in his predictions, and as of right now he believes Secretary Clinton has a 71.4% chance of winning the elction.

5:00PM Pacific Time, 8:00PM Eastern, 0100 GMT. I’m getting my information from National Public Radio. There are no surprises. At this point it appears that Hillary will pick up the following states: Vermont (3), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), Maryland (10), Washington D.C. (3), and Delaware (3). Donald Trump should pick up Oklahoma (7), Indiana (11), Kentucky (8), and West Virginia (5). If my math is correct that gives Hillary 44 electoral votes and Donald 31. But the night is young.

The candidates always claim they are campaigning in all 50 states, but that’s not true. Most states were safe for one of the candidates and the race will come down to a few battleground states. I’m looking at Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida. I don’t have information on Pennsylvania, but as of right now Ohio shows Hillary ahead, 52.7% to 43.7%. Florida also shows Hillary ahead 49.2% to 47.8% and North Carolina has Hillary ahead 51.8% to 45.7%. These battlegrounds are far from settled and it’s much too early to read too much into these numbers.

I didn’t think my home state of Virginia would be a battleground, but as of now Donald is ahead 52.4% to 42.8%. That’s a surprise.

It’s now 5:50 and there’s a few updates. Hillary has picked up Rhode Island (4); Donald has picked up Tennessee (11), South Carolina (9) and Alabama (9). These are hardly surprising and as of right now Donald has 60 electoral votes to Hillary’s 48.

6:00PM Pacific Time, 9:00PM Eastern Time, 0200 GMT. This is the point in the evening when the Republican candidate rises fastest. It’s holding true here. Donald has been predicted the winner in Texas (38), Kansas (6), Wyoming (3), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), and Nebrasda (5). Hillary has picked up Illinois (20), New York (29), and Connecticut (7). If you look at the electoral map, Trump leads 129-97. Four years ago I was nervous and probably shouldn’t have been. Donald’s biggest state (Texas) is already in his category while Hillary’s biggest state (California) has polls open for another 2 hours. I’ll keep you posted.

I’m writing now at about 6:30 and at this time four years ago, Mitt Romney was leading President Obama 153 to 123. By about 7:00 it turned around and stayed there. I can only pray the pattern continues.

Last hour I spoke about Virginia. I grew up in Prince William County and it was pretty Republican when I lived there. It’s now more Democratic and I couldn’t be more proud. That said, I assumed Virginia would be safe for Hillary. But as I write this Donald is ahead 47.6% to 47.3%. Hillary had narrowed the gap but it’s hard to believe Donald will carry Virginia. If he does, Hillary probably needs to beat expectations somewhere else. I pray she does.

7:00PM Pacific Time, 10:00PM Eastern Time, 0300GMT. I promised myself I wouldn’t worry too much about the results, but I may have to break that promise. Since my last update Donald has won Missouri (10) and Louisiana (8) while Hillary picks up New Mexico (5).

My only note of optimism comes from the fact that Hillary is ahead in Virginia by a razor thin margin (47.7% to 47.2%). Hillary is trending ahead and at this late point the trend rarely reverses.

My pessimism is fed in the states of Michigan and Wisconsin. All the polls I watched had Hillary winning by a small but consistent margin. Most of the votes are not counted, but the early polling does not look good. This may be a long night.

Ok, it’s 7:40 and it appears that Hillary has won Virginia. This doesn’t guarantee she’ll win, but it makes it much better that she won’t lose. Keep posted.

8:00 Pacific Time, 11:00 Eastern Time, 0400GMT. OK by this time I hoped to declare Hillary the winner and go to bed. This isn’t going to happen. Donald picked up Montana (3), North Carolina (15) and Idaho (4) and Hillary picked up California (55). It’s going to be a long night. My apologies to the patients I visit tomorrow.

The Election Chronicles, Volume 37: Is the GOP Coming Apart At the Seams?

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Almost a year ago I wrote that the Republican Party appeared to be falling apart. I wrote this against a backdrop of the birth of the GOP that came with the death of the Whig party.

Twelve months later it appears the GOP is fracturing into three different wings:

  1. Government should do fewer things and do them better. Most people who identify as Republicans point here to explain why they are Republican. They don’t feel that the government has any business meddling in marriage, education, social engineering or a host of other areas. They point to the Constitution as their guiding principles. They don’t mind paying taxes to keep us safe, but they hate the idea of paying income taxes to support people who don’t want to work. They describes themselves as fiscal and social conservatives. Today these Republicans look to House Speaker Paul Ryan as their leader.
  2. We are a Christian nation. This wing takes seriously the fact that our founders were Christians and the phrase “under God” appear on our money and the phase “In God We Trust” finds a place etched in many of our federal buildings. We are not merely one nation among others. We, the United States of America, are chosen by God to be the shining city upon the hill. This is both a blessing and a responsibility. It’s a responsibility because God will judge us based on our worthiness; because God chose us, God will also judge us on how we respond. If we become a nation that allows political correctness and gay marriage, God will withdraw His blessing. Our salvation as a nation depends on the direction we take. Today these Republicans look to Senator Ted Cruz as their leader.
  3. We are under attack. These Republicans remember when being American meant leading the free world. If you were willing to work you could feed your family and own your own home. Other countries eagerly bought what we manufactured and “made in Japan” was code for “cheap.” But we’ve lost our place and other countries now dictate how we live. Time is running out and we need to reclaim our place now or risk losing it forever. Our attackers aren’t just foreign workers who take our jobs, they are also people who come into our country illegally and take our jobs. Our survival depends on our ability to keep out those who want our jobs (or want to plant bombs) but also our ability to recreate those jobs that made us great. This is not time for political correctness or business as usual. Your very survival depends on your willingness to give full power to one person who will fight for you. These Republicans look to Donald Trump.

OK, I’m a Democrat and I’ll admit that the death of the GOP doesn’t cause me much grief. But I recognize that our nation will never consist entirely of people who agree with me. And I pray that the conservative movement follows Paul Ryan instead of Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. I can respect that our government should do fewer things and do them better. But I can’t respect that our government should be a Christian caliphate or a Fascist Government.

I recognize that large swaths of the American people don’t trust Hillary because she’s been beaten up for alleged (but not proven) charges. I’m weary and unwilling to refute these false charges, but let me say this: She’s the only candidate who possesses the skills to lead our country. I’m voting for her because she’s the only candidate who can lead us.

The Election Chronicles, Volume 36: Let's Look At The Electoral Map

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As I write this we are 29 days from the next Presidential election. As I’m sure you know, Secretary Clinton is opening a lead over Mr. Trump. Most polls differ on her lead, but even Faux News shows Clinton with a lead.

But, as we know, the President isn’t elected by popular vote but by the Electoral College. I won’t wander too far into the weeds of how this works, but let me say this: each state gets a fixed number of electoral votes and they determine who wins the Presidency. Of the 50 states, 48 are “winner take all.” In other words if a candidate wins the majority of votes in that state, s/he wins all the electoral votes, no matter the margin of victory. Only Maine and Nebraska allow candidates to divide the electoral votes.

And as we found in the 2000 Presidential election it’s possible to win the popular vote and lose the electoral vote. In that election George W. Bush won the election even though Al Gore won the popular vote.

As I’ve been following this election I have to confess I haven’t paid much attention to national polls and have instead been looking at the electoral map. And I’ve been obsessed with two web pages with excellent content: Real Clear Politics and Five Thirty Eight.

Both track the electoral maps, but they do it in different ways: RCP looks at the polls in each state while 538 looks at the probability of each candidates’ winning a particular state.

As I write this RCP lists Clinton as winning 260 electoral votes, Trump winning 165, and 113 as tossups (could go either way). The toss up states are: Nevada (6 electoral votes), Arizona (11), Minnesota (10), Iowa (6), Ohio (18), Maine (2 of their 3), North Carolina (15), Georgia (16), and Florida (29).

Of these states, 538 projects Clinton the statistical favorite in all but Arizona, Iowa, and Georgia.

The winner next month needs to get to 270 electoral votes. Of the tossup states, Clinton needs to win only 10 more electoral votes. She can do this by winning only one of the following states: Arizona, Minnesota, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, or Florida. Or she could lose all those states and win both Nevada and Iowa. Trump, on the other hand, has to win 105 electoral votes. The fewest states he needs to win are these: Florida and Ohio and Georgia and North Carolina and Arizona and Minnesota and either Iowa or Nevada.

RCP also shows us a map with no tossups (that is, they look at the polling and choose a winner even if the numbers are close). It shows Clinton with 340 electoral votes and Trump with 198.

He’s got a tough rode to victory.