Donald Trump’s campaign makes several claims. I’ve been fascinated by one: Vote For Me Because I’m Rich. He has essentially said that he can be successful as President because he’s been smart enough to get rich.

But here’s where it gets hard. Don claims to be worth $10 billion but there’s really no way to verify that. Some believe his net worth is half that.

But that’s OK. Let’s take him at his word and believe him when he says he is worth $10 billion.

Many times during his campaign he’s bragged that he started his career with a “small loan” of $1 million from his father. But he won’t tell anyone when he got the loan or how long it took him to pay it back.

In any case, let’s accept the fact that he got the loan shortly after he graduated from college in 1968. Assuming his math and timeline, he has turned $1 million in 1968 to $10 billion in 2016. That’s a gain of 10,000%. That’s impressive.

But let me tell my own story. I’m much younger than Don, and I graduated from Woodbridge Senior High School in 1978. My parents gifted me with an electric razor that was probably worth $35.00

Now don’t think I was cheated. My father was weary of my using his razor and gave me one of my own. And this was long before high school graduations commanded trips to Europe, SUV’s or other lavish gifts. Most of my classmates received gifts of a similar nature and none of us felt cheated.

Fast forward to now. In the 38 years since my graduation I’ve done many things, but now my wife and I are worth about $2 million. This comes from the value of our house, our cars, and the money we’ve saved for retirement. I won’t bore you with the details, but here’s my point:

Donald has increased his value by 10,000%. I’ve increased mine by 57,000%.

Full disclosure: I’ve been blessed. Much of my education at George Mason University, Boston College, St. Patrick’s Seminary, and Catholic University were paid for by my parents, the Stigmatine Fathers, and the Paulist Fathers.

But unlike Donald I’ve never declared bankruptcy. He claims he has never filed for “personal” bankruptcy but his companies have filed four times.

By Donald’s measure, I’m more successful than he is.

Last October I suggested that this election would mark the end of the Republican Party.

I argued that registered Republicans may claim the same party but hold different views. Almost all Republicans claim allegiance to President Reagan and view his Presidency with nostalgia. They all claim to be “Reagan Republicans.”

But they aren’t.

The “mainstream” Republicans looked to Jeb Bush and expected to have wrapped up the nomination by this time. Jeb favored smaller government and garnered significant popularity from his time as governor of Florida. His wife, Columba, was born in Mexico. They married in 1974 and she became a US citizen in 1979. Clearly he was the best candidate to reach out to the fastest growing demographic in our country. And, by the way, Jeb had the best argument to claim the mantle of Ronald Reagan. His candidacy never got footing, and now most of his supporters are looking at Ohio Governor John Kasich.

Christian Conservative voters looked to Ted Cruz. They recognized that his successful Texas Senate campaign in 2012 made it clear he did not join the Senate to make friends. Most Senators recognize that they best serve their constituents by cooperating and working together with other Senators. But Ted and his supporters believe they are not following their own agendas, but God’s. And if you believe you are advancing God’s agenda, any compromise with your opponents diminishes your commitment to God’s agenda and places your soul in peril. In October of 2013, against the wishes of the Republican leadership, Ted forced a 2 week shutdown of the federal government over his call to repeal the Affordable Care Act. It didn’t work, it made his party appear out of touch, and it made much of the Republican Party hate him. But for his supporters it made him appear brave and visionary.

The libertarian wing of the Republican party has always attempted to find their voice. They believe that government should provide for a national defense and almost nothing else. They claim that the framers of the Constitution worked hard to limit the role of government in the lives of individual Americans and the expansion of government, particularly in the last 80 years, has betrayed their memory. They hold that only the free market can adequately pick winners and losers and social welfare programs incentivize the wrong people. They favored Rand Paul (and earlier his father Ron Paul). This wing never had much of a chance but they were OK with that.

The greatest surprise of the 2016 campaign (and the topic that will be written about for decades to come) comes from Donald Trump. He is a real estate developer and has never held elective office. When he began his presidential bid in June of 2015 he wasn’t given much of a chance. But he successfully tapped into long simmering anger among many Americans, and he drew huge numbers of people to his cause. And so what is his cause? It’s hard to pin down but Don’s rhetoric comes down to this: Washington is broken. The people you have elected for the past 50 years have betrayed you. They promised to serve you and make your life better but instead they made themselves comfortable at your expense. It’s time to throw them out and “make America great again.” I’m wealthy and smart and I know how to get things done. I will fulfill the promises the establishment promised.

So here’s the problem: John Kasich simply does not have the support he needs to lead. Ted Cruz’s promise of a “Christian Caliphate” emboldens conservative Christians but frightens the rest of us. There just aren’t enough libertarians to go anywhere. And Donald’s ongoing xenophobic, misogynist, racist and hateful remarks only shows us he cannot lead.

This doesn’t make headlines, but there are Republicans who have already recognized that they don’t have a candidate who can beat Hillary. Neither Trump or Cruz will have enough votes. But a Cruz nomination will at least keep the GOP intact while a Trump nomination will not.

If the GOP dies in 2016, conservatives will regroup, but it’s hard to know how.

Many of us (or at least some of us) spent last Tuesday watching the news to see how the different candidates fared on “Super Tuesday.”

We learned that it was a good day for the frontrunners. Of the 11 state races in the Republican race, Donald Trump won 7, Ted Cruz won 3, and Marco Rubio took 1 (Minnesota).

Meanwhile on the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton won seven and Bernie Sanders won four.

At this point in the election cycle it appears that it’s Hillary’s and Donald’s to loose. For Democrats it’s the news that surprises no one. Bernie has successfully awakened several groups: young Democrats, socialists, people who believe that wage unequality makes us weaker, and people who strongly favor Single Payer Health Care. But Hillary has been a household name for 24 years since her husband was elected our 42nd President.

On the other hand the Republican party is in full panic mode. Last October I posted the possibility that this election could well lead to the death of the Republican Party. I argued that the current GOP consists of several factions that are only coming into view now.

Trump speaks to Republicans who feel the United States is no longer the leader of the world and need to reclaim it. They believe that we Americans are under attack by immigrants from Mexico, Muslims from Syria, and the Chinese who benefit from trade deals that steal American jobs.

Cruz speaks to Republicans who have a strong belief in a Christian God. They believe that God chose America to be (as Ronald Reagan called it) a shining city upon a hill. America will be judged by God based on whether we follow God’s laws. Abortion, gay marriage, and cooperation with Muslims anger God and will make us weaker. Our country needs to reclaim “family values” and our worst enemies are those who choose “political correctness” over faithfulness to our Creator. A vote for Cruz guarantees God’s blessing.

Rubio speaks to the “establishment Republicans.” They speak to an America where government is limited, free enterprise is valued, and laws are passed only when they need to be. In previous election cycles he would have claimed the best road to the nomination. Unfortunately he is seen as “part of the mainstream” and an upstart.

The panic over the concept of Trump nomination has caused the GOP to run in several directions. Some, like Chris Christie have sold out and back Trump, hoping for a cabinet post.

This morning we listened to a speech given by Mitt Romney. Mitt warned that Trump has no idea what he’s doing and that he’s suckering his supporters.

It appears there is no realistic path to Trump coming into the GOP Convention with a majority of delegates. But if he doesn’t come with more than 50% of the delegates we will have what’s often called a brokered convention. The hope then lies in Trump’s opponents coalescing around one candidate and the combined delegates outvote Trump.

Many of us see this as a possibility but I still think the more likely path forward is that another Republican announces an independent candidacy. My money is still on Ted Cruz but other possible candidates include Michael Bloomberg or even Mitt Romney.

Fasten your seatbelts. It’s going to be a wild ride.

I’ve written about this topic often, but it continues to fascinate me. The Republican primary is running in directions that nobody could have predicted. A year ago Jeb Bush was the presumptive nominee and he was swimming in money. It was his to lose.

But in June Donald Trump announced his candidacy and at that time few thought of him as a serious candidate. Don came with no experience in governing anything, a history of avoiding responsibilities for his mistakes by declaring bankruptcy, and very little experience as a Republican.

But for numerous reasons Donald’s numbers have gone up while Jeb’s tanked. Many of us (myself included) expected Don to flame out in late summer or early fall. Or late fall. Or early winter. Or…well, you get the point.

In an earlier post I spoke about the possibility that the Republican Party may well fracture because different Republicans point to different values. There are “mainline” Republicans who favor smaller government but see their path as one of cooperation and coalition building. Marco Rubio speaks to this group. Christian conservatives populate another faction. They strongly believe that we are one nation under God and we are subject to God’s laws. They agree with the idea of smaller government but they also believe that government must defend traditional marriage, ban abortion, and ensure Christians never be compelled to violate their beliefs. They see our future best defended by Ted Cruz. Donald Trump speaks to a group much larger than anyone expected. They believe that government is so broken that someone from the outside, someone who has a track record of getting things done, who is not afraid to say bold and even offense things gives us our best path forward. They look at Don and believe he can translate his success in real estate to making “America great again.”

Last fall I honestly thought that he would flame out, lose Republican support, drop in the polls, and announce an independent candidacy. As a Democrat I saw this as good news. Trump and the Republican nominee would divide the Republican vote and the Democrat would win.

Now I’m not so certain. It’s true that we are in the delegate count’s early stages (and you can track that here) but Trump continues to steam ahead. Perhaps he will still flame out, but the “Republican establishment” is trying to figure out what to do.

I suspect that if Trump’s momentum continues and his delegate count rises, he will not leave the Republican race. I suspect Ted Cruz might.

Ted comes to the 2016 race with decent Republican credentials. After graduating from Harvard Law School he clerked for William Rehnquist and later served as the Solicitor General of Texas. In 2012 he was elected to the United States Senate.

But as a member of the Senate he went out of his way to offend his fellow senators. House Speaker Sam Rayburn (1882-1961) famously stated: “You have to go along to get along.” Ted never got the message. He has consistently claimed the “high moral ground” as a rational to prevent progress in Congress.

The U.S. Constitution grants Congress the power to write the annual National Budget for the President to sign. This gives the Congress the “power of the purse” and allows Congress to defund any program they don’t like.

Several times Congress has refused to fund the government over budget disagreements and when they do the “federal government” shuts down. This means that thousands of ordinary government employees (including my sister) stay home, don’t do their work, and pray that they won’t be docked the time they lost while Congress and the President can’t get along. It also means that National Parks close and a host of other services are out of reach.

This may be a long way around my point but Ted has made his career based on not playing well with others. Simply put, other senators hate his guts and not even Republican senators want him to be President.

Since Ted is behind in the delegate race, and since he has no loyalty to himself (and claims a loyalty to God), I wonder this: if Donald Trump appears to be winning the GOP nomination, will Ted leave the Republican party and run as a candidate of his own party? I think there is a real possibility that Ted will claim that he is God’s candidate and will found his own party (perhaps called the Christian Party). He will run on a platform that the only way forward for our country lies in following God’s Law.

A few days ago we got the results of the Republican primary in South Carolina and the Democratic caucus in Nevada. There was no surprise that Donald Trump won South Carolina and won all 50 delegates. It was closer in Nevada, but Hillary Clinton got he victory she needed. Interestingly enough the Republicans now travel to Nevada and the Democrats to South Carolina.

Jeb Bush called it quits, and even people like me who would never have voted for him feel a little sadness. Last year at this time he was seen as the presumptive GOP frontrunner but his campaign never got traction. Frankly, this had nothing to do with the man, and possibly everything to do with his last name.

We find ourselves at a time in our history when large swaths of our population grow weary of “politics as usual” and are apparently willing to gamble on outsiders without the experience, temperament, or skills to lead. Too many Republicans looked at Mr. Bush and had no stomach for another Bush/Clinton campaign.

I disagree with many of his positions, but I do respect him as a man, a husband, and a father. I wish him well.

I’ve begun to keep track of the delegate count in both parties here and I’ve removed Jeb from the table.

Four years ago I set up a table to keep track of delegates for each of the two major parties. I mistakenly believed that it would be an easy task, but instead soon found that different media outlets disagreed on the numbers.

There are several reasons. The road from vote count to delegates won can be arduous. In the 2012 Iowa Caucus Mitt Romney appeared to be the winner, but the final results showed that Rick Santorum edged him out. Additionally, both parties invite unpledged delegates (oftentimes called “superdelegates”) who may voice a preference but don’t have to cast their vote until the convention.

And so once again I’ve built a table that tracks several media outlets and their delegate count. I only have a few now, but I suspect that as time goes on, more media outlets will have their own trackers.

Interestingly enough, as I write this, all three media outlets show exactly the same numbers. I suspect they are all getting their numbers from the Associated Press.

You can find my tracker here.