Dear Don:

I feel no joy in writing this post, but I read the interview that Reuters published yesterday. One of your quotations struck me: “This is more work than in my previous life. I thought it would be easier.”

If you’ve been keeping up with my blog, you know I’ve been telling you for months that serving the American people as our President is difficult. Last December 11th I raised the concern that you were not taking advantage of daily briefings. Five days later I suggested that it wasn’t a good idea to ignore intelligence that you didn’t like. On February 9th I pointed out how little you know about the balance of power and the role of the judiciary in our government. The next day I pointed out that your ignorance of the START treaty puts us all at risk.

I could go on and on, but here’s my point: you ran on a platform where you claimed that you were smart enough to not need to learn how to govern. Now we find that you believed all along that running our country would be easier than turning a small fortune into a big one in real estate. Last year I suggested that if we look only at the numbers I’ve been more of a success than you have. Don, I tell you that my father, who worked for the federal government from 1953 to 1988, knew something you’re still figuring out: government service is complicated. It requires a work ethic, and willingness to learn how to do the job. I’m proud of him because putting food on our table meant he needed to learn, to listen, to hone his skills, and to do a good job. And he didn’t spend every weekend playing golf at Mar a Lago.

Seriously, call me.

Dear Don:

As I write this we appear surrounded by possible international crises, and frankly I’ve been expecting it. Back in December I expressed concern that you don’t do your homework and believe yourself smart enough not to need to. My concern centered on the real possibility that another country will test you and you won’t know what to do.

Now I see that you are sabre rattling on North Korea, even to the point of lying about an “armada” heading their way. Even though Iran has complied with the terms of our nuclear treaty you insist that you will review it. In August of 2015 you called the treaty “terrible.” You ordered a bombing in Syria (using tomahawk missiles) after watching pictures of dying children. I could go on but I think you see my point.

Last month I wrote about the 100th anniversary of the US entrance into World War I. I didn’t write then about the reasons but it’s worth a look. Simply put, World War I resulted from a series of secret agreements, a push by crumbling empires to appear relevant, and a general disregard for the human cost of war.

Amazingly it all began with a small spark that ignited an immense powder keg. The Austro-Hungarian Empire was crumbling but still insisted on exerting influence on the nations of Bosnia and Herzegovina. A 19 year old Serbian named Gavrilo Princip (1894-1918) shot to death Archduke Ferdinand and his wife Sophie, next in line to the Austro Hungarian throne.

Austria-Hungary soon declared war on Serbia, and within weeks World War I formed between the Central Powers and the Allies.

On an autobiographical note, my wife’s grandfather was born in Austria-Hungary in 1882. When he was 20 his father put him on a ship to America to avoid his being drafted into the army for yet another war. It went well for him, and for me.

Don, my point is this: World War I casualties list 16,500,000 dead and 20,000,000 wounded. And it began with secret treaties and posturing between large nations. And the world went to war when a small spark from a 19 year hold hit a mountain of gunpowder.

Yesterday we saw the Press Secretary take Amateur Hour to a new high. Past recipients of the Amateur Hour award include Kellyanne Conway, President Trump, and Presidential Aide Stephen Miller. We can now add Sean Spicer to that list.

The full transcript of the briefing is here. In the course of his press conference he was asked what made President Trump think he can get President Putin to pull back his support for President Assad. Mr. Spicer responded:

I think a couple things. You look — we didn’t use chemical weapons in World War II. You had someone as despicable as Hitler who didn’t even sink to using chemical weapons. So you have to, if you’re Russia, ask yourself is this a country that you and a regime that you want to align yourself with? You have previously signed on to international agreements rightfully acknowledging that the use of chemical weapons should be out of bounds by every country. To not stand up to not only Assad, but your own word, should be troubling. Russia put their name on the line. So it’s not a question of how long that alliance has lasted, but at what point do they recognize that they are now getting on the wrong side of history in a really bad way really quickly. And again, look at the countries that are standing with them: Iran, Syria, North Korea. This is not a team you want to be on. And I think that Russia has to recognize that while they may have had an alliance with them, that the lines that have been crossed are ones that no country should ever want to see another country cross. (italics mine)

Later in the briefing he was asked to clarify his remarks on how Hitler did not sink the level of using chemical weapons. Here is his response:

I think when you come to sarin gas, there was no — he was not using the gas on his own people the same way that Assad is doing, I mean, there was clearly — I understand your point, thank you. Thank you, I appreciate that. There was not — he brought them into the Holocaust center, I understand that. But I’m saying in the way that Assad used them, where he went into towns, dropped them down to innocent — into the middle of towns. It was brought — so the use of it — I appreciate the clarification there. That was not the intent

.

In fairness he later apologized and recognized that he violated the First Rule of Politics: Never compare anything to Hitler.

And while I accept his apology, I’m more troubled by his clarification that his original statement. We all know that millions of Jews (and others) were gassed by Zyklon B, a chemical weapon. And I can understand how, in the heat of the moment, he forgot about that. But when asked to clarify (and when he could have easily admitted he was mistaken), he spoke about how President Assad’s crime was more serious than Hitler’s because Hitler didn’t use it on “his own people” and that Assad “dropped them down to innocent, in the middle of towns.”

Whether he intended it or not, Mr. Spicer claimed that Jews and others in the concentration camps (or the Holocaust center) were not “his own people.” This plays exactly into Hitler’s claim the Jews were not “our people” but outsiders.

Welcome to the Amateur Hour club.

Dear President Trump:

In my last post I suggested that your are learning that you have a hard job. It got me thinking that you might need to understand what’s going on there. Here is my analysis (you’re welcome):

In 2011 we witnessed the Arab Spring. It began in Tunisia and spread to Egypt, Lybia, Yemen, and Syria. They all attempted to overthrow dictators and return power to the people.

The Arab Spring has mixed results, but for our purpose let’s concentrate on Syria. The people of Syria certainly had motivation. Since 2000 they have lived under the oppression of President Bashar al-Assad; he succeeded his father Hafez al-Assad who ruled from 1970 until his death. By all accounts Bashar is a chip off the old block: Hafez was just as cruel as his son.

This might be a good place to talk about the role of religion in all this. The majority of Syrians are Muslim but like Christianity, there are divisions within Islam. For example, I am Catholic and you are Presbyterian, but we are both Christians.

Almost from its beginning, Muslims have divided into two groups: Sunni and Shia. Most Muslims are Sunni, but there are pockets of Shia, including Iran.

In Syria a small group of Shia Muslims branched off to a group called Alawites. Mr. Assad and his family are Alawite.

So what does this mean? If you hear nothing else from this post hear this: the war in Syria is a three way war. Three groups all battle for victory, and claim foreign sponsors. Let me try to explain this as best I can:

• Mr Assad leads the first group. As I said he is an Alawite and claims Syria’s only future lies in a continuation of his regime. He believes everyone who opposes him wants to destroy Syria and his backing comes from Russian President Vladimir Putin.
• Syrian resistance composes the second group. They viewed the Arab Spring and saw an opportunity to overthrow Mr. Assad. Three of four of them identify as Sunni Muslims and believe they have suffered from oppression at the hands of the Assad’s. The United States supports this group.
• Finally, ISIS rounds out these groups. They are Shia and view both Alawites and Sunnis as infidels and want Syria to comprise part of a larger caliphate. They are backed by Iran.

Yes, Mr. Trump, this is complicated. Your fawning over Mr. Putin may well come back to haunt you as you have sent your Secretary of State to scold Mr. Putin. It likely won’t work. In any three way conflict, an alliance between two of them will almost certainly defeat the third. If Iran and Russia join forces, Syria may become a caliphate that none of us want.

Last September you told us you had a secret plan to destroy ISIS. At the time you refused to reveal it out of a fear that one of your opponents would appropriate it.

You no longer have opponents for your office. Maybe now is the time to reveal it.

Call me.

Let me being by saying this: no act of war is good. War is sometimes necessary but it’s never good. I write this blog post knowing that “good” means “the best of a series of bad choices.”

A few days ago I spoke about how President Trump is learning that his election propelled him into a tough job. He ran on a platform of America First, meaning that regardless of our history or our place in the world, we bear no responsibility for atrocities outside of our border.

But inventions in the 19th and 20th Centuries (telegraphs, telephones, cameras, radios, televisions, computers, the internet, social media, OK, you get the idea) provide us access to events thousands of miles from us within seconds. And this access brings with it a moral compass (religious or not) that commands that we care about people we don’t know and do what we can to defeat injustice and value human life regardless of where they live and what they look like.

In the 21st Century our recognition that we know what evil rulers are doing to their own people and it matters to us. As Americans who care about human rights we cannot ignore what is happening in Syria because if it can happen to them, it can happen to us. Their lives matter to us and once we learn of their plight we cannot look away or pretend it isn’t happening.

And so for of us who weep for those who died at the hand of President Bashar Al Assad we applaud last week’s airstrike. We applaud Mr. Trump’s decision to move away from his belief that we don’t care about what happens outside our borders.

But, at the same time, I worry about the path ahead of us. Both President Assad and Russian President Putin condemned these actions I’m not certain Mr. Trump has a plan for what happens next. I recognize that Mr. Trump was horrified by pictures of dead and dying children from Sarin attacks from Syria, but what does he do next?

Mr. Trump proclaimed last week that he is not the “president of the world.” On March 30th Secretary of State Rex Tillerson proclaimed that only the Syrian people should decide who leads them.

Let me state simply my concern: President Trump ordered the attack on Syria because he saw horrific pictures on Faux News. It’s likely more complex than this. Presidential advisor Steve Bannon argues against foreign intervention and almost certainly opposed the strike. On the other end of this issue, Presidential son in law Jared Kushner certainly argued in favor of it. The last few weeks have shown that Mr. Trump listens to his son in law more than his advisor and I’m certain this contributed to the strike.

That said, I’m not certain anyone in the White House has a 2nd step to a policy nobody seems to articulate. In the days since the strike Mr. Assad has continued to murder his own people.

A “first strike” is the easy part. Now comes the hard part: What do we do now?

Last month I wrote about President Trump’s admission that he was surprised that health care was complicated. This alarmed many of us as he appeared to the be last American who understood this.

Alas, he campaigned on a platform that claimed everything was easy for him and if we voted for him he would fix everything. Famously he announced that I alone can fix it, speaking about all the troubles we face.

He told us he had a plan to defeat ISIS a year ago. Several times he’s promised to defeat North Korea without telling us how. He continues to blame President Obama for the carnage in Syria but promises a solution without telling us what it is.

In the last few days he’s learned that Syria is also complicated. As I write this he is ordering an airstrike against a Syrian airfield. I appreciate he is choosing some action instead of complaining about the “mess” he inherited. But I fear he thinks this will end the conflict in Syria. It won’t. Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad won’t surrender and Russian President Vladimir Putin won’t change his support from President Assad to President Trump.

And if Syria isn’t enough, Mr. Trump is also dealing with an ongoing crisis in North Korea. President Kim Jong Un clearly allows his people to starve while he concentrates on building a nuclear weapon that can reach the United States.

As I write this, Chinese President Xi Jinping is meeting with Mr. Trump in Florida. Simply put, only China can seriously pressure North Korea to do anything, but China has little reason to do so. North Korea has no desire to bomb China and China fears not a nuclear North Korea but a collapsing North Korea. Anything that destabilizes North Korea runs the risk of creating the kind of chaos that would cause thousands, and perhaps millions, of starving North Koreans to pour into China. Clearly China doesn’t want this, and Mr. Trump could probably only suggest they build a wall.

Being President is hard, and I think Mr. Trump is only now recognizing this.

The unfolding possibility that President Trump and members of his administration colluded with Russian agents to interfere with or sway the 2016 election occupies many of us.

And those of us “of a certain age” remember another Presidential scandal: Watergate. In the early hours of the morning on June 17, 1972 five men were found inside the offices of the Democratic National Committee. It was soon found out that they broke into the offices to install listening devices on the phones to give President Nixon and his campaign intelligence on his opponent, Senator George McGovern.

Virtually nobody believes that President Nixon knew about the this in advance, but within a few days he directed his staff to bribe the burglars to plead guilty and not implicate anyone else from the campaign.

President Nixon easily won re-election in November of 1972 but by the first few months of 1973 things began to unravel. On April 6, 1973 Presidential Counsel John Dean reached out to members of the Senate Watergate committee. His cooperation came to light and Mr. Dean was fired on April 30th.

During all these months, President Nixon became more and more insulated and desperate. His press secretary Ron Ziegler continued to press the line that “there’s nothing to see here” and that Watergate mattered only to the press.

It’s not a stretch to see President Trump now playing the role of President Nixon and Press Secretary Sean Spicer reprises Ron Ziegler’s role.

In the last few days we’ve learned that Mr. Trump’s original pick for National Security Advisor, General Michael Flynn has a story to tell. But he demands immunity from prosecution before he will tell his story.

Ironically, John Dean asked for immunity from President Nixon. It wasn’t granted.

General Flynn finds himself in a different place as he is asking for immunity from Congress. Nevertheless, I have to think that as I write this several occupants of the Trump administration are praying General Flynn does not testify to what he knows.

Some of you may recognize this phrase from the song Games People Play by The Alan Parsons Project. It’s been a few days since the death of the AHCA and we’ve grown weary of who is to blame.

Hopefully we can now pivot to our next step. President Trump has spent the last several days blaming the Freedom Caucus, the Democrats, and perhaps House Speaker Paul Ryan (don’t believe me? Ok, look at Mr. Trump’s tweet encouraging people to watch Judge Jeanine who blamed Speaker Ryan).

By all accounts the AHCA would have denied healthcare to millions of Americans, particularly th elderly poor. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office found that 24,000,000 Americans would lose health coverage, and most of those are Americans 50 or older.

Enter the Alan Parsons Project. Here is a line from Games People Play:

Where do we go from here now that all of the children have grown up?
And how do we spend our lives knowing nobody gives us a damn?

I’ll confess that I’m somewhere north of 50 years old and I’m blessed to have health insurance from my employer but I also live with the recognition that my wife and I are locked in to keeping our jobs. Before the Affordable Care Act was passed in 2010 I would have been denied private insurance for a pre-existing condition (I use a bipap for sleep apnea). The ACA would allow me to purchase health insurance on a state exchange (because I live in a state that participates in it).

But the AHCA would have made health insurance unaffordable. And despite the fact that the AHCA failed, I’m still not safe. President Trump has executive authority to gut enough of the ACA to render it useless.

I get it that you may not care about me, as I’m probably safe. But if you know someone my age who fears losing his job, you need to oppose President Trump’s determination to destroy the ACA and blame his predecessor.

Today we received word that the Republican flagship legislation, the American Health Care Act of 2017 (AHCA), will not come up for a vote because of a lack of support.

Since passage of the Affordable Care Act in 2010, Republicans have voiced a false narrative that it won’t work and we can’t afford it. It’s certainly far from perfect but instead of continuing to work on it (as we have with Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid) the Republicans saw the ACA as a way of gaining power.

And to be fair it worked. In 2010 the Democrats controlled the White House and both houses of Congress. Running on the promise of repealing the ACA Republicans scored victories gaining majorities in the House in 2010, the Senate in 2014, and the White House in 2016.

But Candidate Trump ran on the platform that replacing and improving the ACA “on day one” would be a top priority. He made this statement on March 3, 2016: “On day one of the Trump Administration, we will ask Congress to immediately deliver a full repeal of Obamacare.” You can see the link here.

In October of 2015 I predicted the demise of the Republican Party and suggested that our next President would never be a Republican. OK, I was wrong. At least on the timetable.

But the demise of the AHCA today showed us while my timetable may have been wrong, my point was not. Currently the House is divided into 237 Republicans, 193 Democrats, and 5 vacancies, and any bill needs 216 votes to pass. Most people (myself included) expected the Republicans would have no trouble passing the AHCA: Even if every Democrat and 21 Republicans voted against the AHCA it would pass. Frankly we thought the Senate fight would make headlines.

But Mr. Trump (who is still wrapping his head around the recognition he can’t fire anyone who irritates him) never expected opposition from the Republican Freedom Caucus, who are some of most conservative members of Congress.

So here’s his reality: of all the things he promised as a candidate, this was supposed to be the easiest. This was supposed to be his victory lap. This was supposed to be the first chapter of an epic Presidency. As I write this we have 1,326 days in his Presidency. It’s hard to imagine that it gets better from here.

Yes, this a bit of a hyperbole but it got your attention. On March 23, 2010 President Obama signed into law the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, also called the Affordable Care Act or Obamacare. From the moment Mr. Obama signed this legislation, the Republican Party announced it would destroy America. It didn’t.

But it didn’t prevent the GOP from spending the last 7 years claiming it was imploding even though evidence disputes this.

With Republican victories in November they found themselves in the unenviable position of having to keep their promises. Earlier this month President Trump released his plan, called the American Health Care Reform Act of 2017. It’s been a hard sell.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office reported that 14,000,000 Americans who currently have health insurance will lose it. This act particularly hurts Americans too young for Medicare (in their 50s or 60s), who don’t have health insurance from their employers, and don’t make much money. Many of these groups live in rural areas that voted overwhelming for Mr. Trump.

You can see this in an article in the Denver Post but they are about to find out that they’ve been betrayed.

Mr. Trump promised that nobody who has health insurance will lose it. Clearly Mr. Trump is lying.

Tomorrow the House of Representatives will vote on Mr. Trump’s plan. Fourteen million Americans, and those who care about them, hope it will fail.