New Hampshire: Some Expected Outcomes, Some Surprises

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I’m writing this about 8:00pm Pacific Time and 11:00pm Eastern Time. The polls are closed in New Hampshire and the winners have been declared: John McCain is currently carrying 37% of the Republican vote and Hillary Clinton carries 39% of the Democratic vote. Just under 80% of the vote has been counted.

John McCain’s win isn’t much of a surprise as he bypassed Iowa to concentrate on New Hampshire. The news is that Mitt Romney did not win. He has been spending a great deal of money in both Iowa and New Hampshire; New Hampshire is also adjacent to Romney’s home state of Massachusetts. He was expected to win Iowa because of his presence and the money he poured into it and he was expected to win New Hampshire because, frankly, they know him from living next door. Mitt faces an uphill battle; two of the next three primaries are in the South (Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida) whose populations contain a high percentage of evangelical Christians who will have trouble voting for a Mormon. The next few weeks should be good for Mike Huckabee but he needs to sew things up pretty quickly or miss his chance. The evangelical message plays well only in those states with high evangelical populations.

The results of the Democratic primary surprised me a little. Until a few days ago it appeared to be neck and neck between Senator Clinton and Barack Obama but a poll a few days ago had Senator Obama pulling ahead. Tonight it appears that this last poll was dead wrong. That happens: polls always have a margin of error. Interestingly enough the vote count is close enough that they will both end up with 9 delegates (John Edwards takes the other 4). Things would have gone much better for Senator Obama if he had won. As he heads into the South he carries with him an uphill battle of his own. There is a segment of the population in South Carolina and Florida who simply will not vote for an African American and won’t necessarily admit it. He won’t be able to fully trust the polls because of this. I’m originally from Virginia and remember L. Douglas Wilder who was governor from 1990 to 1994. He learned during the race to factor out a certain percentage of people who said they would vote for him but really wouldn’t. Senator Obama may face the same thing.

John McCain may have something to say about this. In the now famous election of 2000 he beat President Bush in New Hampshire and was doing well in South Carolina. The Bush campaign in South Carolina did something called “push polling.” They called Republicans in South Carolina under the guise of taking a poll. They started the call by asking who the person intended to vote for in the primary; if the caller said he or she would vote for John McCain the poller would ask: “Would you be more or less willing to vote for John McCain if you knew he secretly fathered a biracial child out of wedlock?” Of course Senator McCain had done no such thing (though, interestingly enough, South Carolina Senator Strom Thurmond had) but that wasn’t the point. The point was to imply to the voter that McCain had, and enough voters were put off because of this that Bush won the South Carolina primary and went on the win the nomination.

In any case, stay tuned. The primary season is just beginning and should prove to be an interesting ride.

Leaving Iowa, Heading to New Hampshire…and the Shuffle

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As I’m reading the news about yesterday’s Iowa caucus, the process of winnowing the race has begun. Joe Biden has withdrawn from the race for the Democratic nomination. His web page has this note from his NH Chair, Jim Ryan:

Tonight, we witnessed a great man, a great American, and a great friend of mine fight a proud fight out in Iowa. He didn’t spend millions of dollars, he didn’t throw the mud, and when the dust settles tomorrow, nobody will question Senator Biden’s conviction, nobody will question his passion, nobody will question his experience, and nobody will question his integrity.

The problems that we faced at the beginning of the day are the same now. We need to get our troops out of Iraq responsibly, we need to change our policy towards Pakistan and ensure that nuclear weapons will not fall into the hands of terrorists, we need to make sure that our children have health care, that we fix No Child Left Behind so that we can actually educate our children and give teachers the support that they need, and that we restore America’s moral authority.

Senator Biden has stood entire life for those who didn’t have a voice, in his authoring of the Violence Against Women Act and his call for support for the countless victims of genocide in Bosnia under Milosevic.

I am proud to have had the opportunity to have come to know Senator Biden, to have worked with and to help shape the debate in this race.

Christopher Dodd also left the race, saying this:

I count the past year as one of the most rewarding in a career of public service. Unfortunately I am withdrawing from the campaign tonight. Thank you for all your efforts throughout the course of this entire Presidential campaign. I will be in touch.

Looking at the South Carolina primary web page I found a few minor Republican candidates and have added them.

As for Iowa, I have to say that I’m pleased to see Barack Obama win as he is the candidate I intend to vote for. Hillary Clinton finished third, behind John Edwards; I don’t think Edwards has a realistic chance of winning the nomination and this news has more to do with Hillary. I like Hillary now as I did when she was First Lady, but I worry that she is such a polarizing candidate that she will become a target in the general election. I’m also aware that this may continue the “Bush/Clinton/Bush” dynasties. On January 20, 2009 I hope to wave goodbye to the Bush family forever from the White House, and I wonder if a Hillary presidency will cause the Bush family to try to find another family member to win the Presidency back.

I’m also concerned with the idea that Mike Huckabee won. Truth be told there is no Republican candidate I would consider voting for but Huckabee worries me. He believes that creationism should be taught instead of science and I don’t think this will be good for the country. I’ll probably write more later.

On The Other Hand … (apologies to Harry Truman)

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I’m writing this at 7:30 p.m. Pacific Time (9:30 p.m. in Iowa) and it appears that the winners are Barack Obama for the Democrats and Mike Huckabee for the Republicans. I’m writing this not to comment on the winners and losers, but to defend the Iowa process.

Iowa begins the process of electing the new president, and now we move to New Hampshire. Lots of people (including my wife and sister-in-law who are commenting as I write this) believe this isn’t good because a small group of people have an undue influence on the process. That’s true in the sense that the winners in Iowa have a leg up on fundraising and media attention. Many of my fellow Californians believe that since we have the largest state population (with over 36,000,000 people) we should have a more significant say (or at least a say) in selecting our next president; as it stands now the selection may be done by the time we get to vote.

On the other hand…there is something to be said for our current system. California is such a large state that the largest fundraisers are locks for the winners. In Iowa anyone with a minimal amount of interest can meet any of the major candidates, and they can decide for themselves. There comes a saturation point where all the extra money in the world can’t change a person’s vote, and states with small populations hit that point sooner. As for me, I think the good people of Iowa study the candidates and platforms, and make reasoned choices that benefit all of us. Perhaps the voting population is not as diverse as the rest of the country but I’m willing to trade some of the diversity for the care that they give.

As I write this Barack Obama is winning for the Democratic ticket, and he is African American. African Americans comprise 2.3% of the state population; it’s clear that at least some of the 97.7% of the rest of Iowa are supporting him. Perhaps the good people of Iowa are thinking of the rest of us.

Also, Mike Huckabee beat Mitt Romney even though Romney outspent Huckabee 20 to 1.

Oh, and by the way, the phrase “on the other hand” was made famous by President Harry S Truman. He demanded to have a one armed lawyer because he was tired of hearing the phrase “on the other hand.”

Year End Changes

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As they year draws to a close I’ve made a few minor changes in this page. On the left side of column I’ve added a few buttons. In the weeks (and even months) before Christmas we were being flooded with catalogs from companies we’d never heard from and never intended to purchase from. Earlier in the month I found out about Catalog Choice. You have to register and give them your name and address but it gives you the opportunity to list the catalogs you don’t want to get. They will then notify the company and ask them not to send anything to you. Additionally when you receive a catalog you don’t want, you can put in the name and customer number and they will ask the company to take you off their list. I know, I know, this depends on the catalog company actually doing it, but it seems that they wouldn’t want to send you more catalogs if you’ve told them you don’t intend to order anything from them. If this turns out to be a complete failure I’ll remove the link.

Just below the link to the Hunger Site I have a link to Donors Choose. If you have children in school, or live near a school, or work with people with children in school, or….OK, if you’re reading this, you know that schools are increasingly underfunded. If you’re tired of having to sell cookie dough or wrapping paper or other assorted stuff, or feeling like you are expected to buy, this is your site. Teachers from all over the country develop ideas and submit proposals that are put on the site. Donors can identify projects they want to support and make targeted donations. Great idea!

Finally, if you scroll down a little to the list of Presidential candidates you’ll see some changes. A few have dropped out of the race and I’ve taken them off. I’ve also included several names of people who are running as independents. I’ve gotten their names from a number of places, mostly Google and Wikipedia. I purposely didn’t include people like Al Gore and Michael Bloomberg because while there are groups that want them to run, they haven’t declared. As always, I’m always looking for updates.

Baseball, Steroids, and the Mitchell Report

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It’s been the buzz of the baseball world, but this past week former Senator George Mitchell released his report. It’s an understatement to say that the results are stunning. He did not have subpoena power and couldn’t compel anyone to talk to him and there was the fear that his report wouldn’t reveal much. It did. You can read a list of the players. There were the names of those we expected to be there (Barry Bonds) but there were also players I wasn’t expecting, like Paul LoDuca and Eric Gagne. It appears that many of the players listed were told where to get the steroids from other players.

Aside from the long list of players the other part of this that was so sickening was the implied complicity of management. I was obviously looking for the names of former Padres, but here is what I found with former pitcher Kevin Brown (it’s on page 216). These are notes from an October 2003 meeting of Dodgers officials:

Kevin Brown – getting to the age of nagging injuries . . . Question what kind of medication he takes . . . Effectiveness goes down covering 1st base or running bases. Common in soccer players and are more susceptible if you take meds to increase your muscles – doesn’t increase the attachments. Is he open to adjusting how he takes care of himself? He knows he now needs to do stuff before coming to spring training to be ready. Steroids speculated by GM

Those same notes quote this about pitcher Eric Gagne: “he probably takes medication and tendons and ligaments don’t build up just the muscle.”

There is much more but this gives a flavor. I’m troubled by this because it was clear that not only was there pressure on the players to use steroids, there was also winks and nods from management. There are a few superstars on this list (Bonds, Clemens, etc.) but there are many more “2nd tier” players who used this stuff not for records, but just to make the team. They are competing against those who are cheating and many felt they had no choice if they wanted to stay on a level playing field.

Lots of comparisons are being made to the 1919 Black Sox scandal (this is where 8 players for the Chicago White Sox took bribes to throw the 1919 World Series against the Cincinnati Reds). I hope it’s not that serious; baseball had a very difficult few years and was only popular again with the rise of Babe Ruth. But the sense of betrayal is the same and I can’t help but feel that some of the fan base will simply leave. I won’t be one of them because I still enjoy watching the game and there are still the Tony Gwynn’s and Cal Ripkin’s out there.

For What Indeed Is the Sound of a Thousand Termites Dying?

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Today we got back from a few days at the Marriott Residence Inn. It was hardly a vacation as we were there because our house was being tented for termites. Yes, the little critters had found us and were attempting to run the entire house through their digestive system. We worked with Lloyd Pest Control who tented the house on Thursday the 29th and removed the tenting today. They use a lethal gas called Sulfuryl Fluoride (it goes by the brand name Vikane) and it’s serious stuff. Not only did we need to vacate the house but we had to remove all the plants and double bag all the food. It’s nice to know that the house is no longer infested but I’m glad it’s over. It was a major pain having to go to work while living in a hotel; it was also strange knowing that I couldn’t get back into my house. In any case I highly recommend both the Residence Inn and Lloyd Pest Control but I hope you don’t need to use them.

Happy Thanksgiving

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I am writing this on Thanksgiving Day, before we head to Nancy’s sister’s home and eat way too much. I’ve always loved Thanksgiving for many reasons. Mostly I like the fact that it’s a civil holiday but most of us think of it in religious terms. I can’t imagine not going to church on Thanksgiving. Last year I included President Lincoln’s 1863 Proclamation. I read this yesterday at my team meeting at work and realized that few of us know that the holiday is only 144 years old. Here’s what he wrote:

The year that is drawing toward its close has been filled with the blessings of fruitful fields and healthful skies. To these bounties, which are so constantly enjoyed that we are prone to forget the source from which they come, others have been added which are of so extraordinary a nature that they can not fail to penetrate and soften even the heart which is habitually insensible to the ever-watchful providence of Almighty God. In the midst of a civil war of unequaled magnitude and severity, which has sometimes seemed to foreign states to invite and to provoke their aggression, peace has been preserved with all nations, order has been maintained, the laws have been respected and obeyed, and harmony has prevailed everywhere, except in the theater of military conflict, while that theater has been greatly contracted by the advancing armies and navies of the Union. Needful diversions of wealth and of strength from the fields of peaceful industry to the national defense have not arrested the plow, the shuttle, or the ship; the ax has enlarged the borders of our settlements, and the mines, as well as the iron and coal as of our precious metals, have yielded even more abundantly than heretofore. Population has steadily increased notwithstanding the waste that has been made in the camp, the siege, and the battlefield, and the country, rejoicing in the consciousness of augmented strength and vigor, is permitted to expect continuance of years with large increase of freedom. No human counsel hath devised nor hath any mortal hand worked out these great things. They are the gracious gifts of the Most High God, who, while dealing with us in anger for our sins, hath nevertheless remembered mercy. It has seemed to me fit and proper that they should be solemnly, reverently, and gratefully acknowledged, as with one heart and one voice, by the whole American people. I do therefore invite my fellow-citizens in every part of the United States, and also those who are in foreign lands, to set apart and observe the last Thursday of November next as a day of thanksgiving and praise to our beneficent Father who dwelleth in the heavens. And I recommend to them that while offering up the ascriptions justly due to Him for such singular deliverances and blessings they do also, with humble penitence for our national perverseness and disobedience, commend to His tender care all those who have become widows, orphans, mourners, or sufferers in the lamentable civil strife in which we are unavoidably engaged, and fervently implore the imposition of the Almighty hand to heal the wounds of the nation and to restore it, as soon as may be consistent with the divine purpose, to the full enjoyment of peace, harmony, tranquillity, and union.
In testimony whereof I have hereunto set my hand and caused the seal of the United States to be affixed.
Done at the city of Washington, this 3d day of October, A.D. 1863, and of the Independence of the United States the eighty-eighth.

Thank you, President Lincoln.

Tony and Alicia Gwynn: They're a Class Act

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OK, so this is hardly a surprising headline, especially for us who live here in San Diego, but it’s worth saying again. Nancy and I were able to go to Cooperstown in July to see Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripkin inducted in the Baseball Hall of Fame. This past Saturday we went to a dinner for the San Diego Foundation where Tony and Alicia were the keynote speakers.

The Foundation is a pool of resources; people who have money they wish to donate can combine with other people. The Foundation provides resources and information so individuals and groups can find good places to donate. It also provides a place where funds can be invested prior to being donated. Nancy’s father has a fund called the Graff Family Foundation (that we will administer when he’s done with it); he was invited to the dinner but given the keynote speakers he gave the tickets to us. It was wonderful.

Tony and Alicia also administer a fund called the Tony and Alicia Gwynn Foundation. After dinner, instead of giving a speech, they answered questions and talked about how they continue to give back to the community. They are both articulate in their belief that they have worked hard, but have also been blessed. Alicia is an ordained minister and talked about how “to whom much is given much is expected” (Luke 12:48). Tony talked about how he is a public figure and he needs to act like one. He spoke about helping children make good decisions by being good role models. He is certainly that.

The funniest part of the evening was before the dinner when I introduced myself to him. I shook his hand and said: “Hello, I’m Tom Allain.” He smiled and said: “Hello, I’m Tony Gwynn.” As if I didn’t know who he is. But somehow the fact that he didn’t assume his fame was refreshing. I’m sure he won’t remember me but I’ll never forget meeting him.

Do They Use Designated Hitters in Federal Prison?

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We’ve been waiting for this for a long time, but word came out that Barry Bonds has been indicted on 4 counts of perjury and 1 count of obstruction of justice related to his testimony before the grand jury in December of 2003. You can read the text of the indictment here. If you don’t have Adobe Acrobat you have to download the reader to read the document.

It was about that time Barry changed his story from “I never took steroids” to “I never knowingly took steroids. The focus of the grand jury investigation was a company called Balco who Justice lawyers believed provided steroids to a number of athletes. Barry was given immunity so that he couldn’t be prosecuted for anything he told the grand jury (this prevents him from taking the Fifth Amendment) as long as he was truthful to the grand jury. Bonds was asked if he received steriods from Greg Anderson, a friend of Bonds who has an affiliate with Balco. He testified that Anderson administered a cream that Bonds believed was flaxseed oil.

This is all pretty dry stuff, but the bottom line is this: the indictment shows he knowingly took steroids and lied to investigators. Now he faces the possibility of prison time, all because he wanted the home run record enough to cheat. This shows not just a lack of respect for himself but also for baseball. I’ve written on this before on March 9, 2006. By the way Sports Illustrated has a terrific slide show on Barry’s growth chart.

Meanwhile, Barry is a free agent and is looking for a team that will pick him up so he can get 3000 hits in the major leagues. It doesn’t look likely now. Speaking only for myself as a baseball fan, I won’t miss him.

Remembering, Celebrating, Honoring (in no particular order)

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These past few weeks since the fires here in San Diego have been emotionally eventful and I’ve lost track of how many times I’ve said: “I need to blog about that.” Today’s entry is kind of a catch all, known in the vernacular as the whole megillah.

  1. A few days ago we commemorated Veteran’s Day, originally called “Armistice Day.” It’s always November 11th and it began as a celebration of the end of World War I (called “The Great War” back then). It’s easy to remember: the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month. According to legend the peace treaty was signed early in the morning but they held off making it effective until 11AM. Hard to imagine they agreed to continue the war for a few more hours.
  2. The day before, November 10th is the is birthday of the Marines. They were created in 1775 by an act of Congress. They continue to be a strong presence in San Diego and around the world.
  3. In the weeks since the fire I’ve had occasion to drive around to see the damage. I’m amazed at the extent of the burned areas, but more amazed by the homes saved. There are several places where the fire damage has gone right up the edge of someone’s home and stopped. I’m sure some of it is because the owner had the forethought to clear the area around their homes. But I’m also convinced that these homes were save by the heroism of the firefighters. It’s nice to see signs in those neighborhoods thanking the first responders. I couldn’t agree more.
  4. Finally I had occasion to go downtown today and see 1,500 people take the oath to become citizens. They have had to fill out untold forms, wait untold months and years, and learn our history and government, and still want to join us. It was an inspiration. One of our newest citizens is my coworker Paola. Don’t tell her but at our next team meeting we’re going to celebrate her work and decision.