And So The 2024 Campaigns Begin

In a previous post I indicated I wouldn’t open the “Election 2024 Chronicles” until early summer of 2023. Depending on how things go between now and then I may not be able to keep that promise.

It’s virtually a given that President Biden will run for re-election. He’s as much as admitted it and I think other Democrats know that if they challenge him they may well insure a Republican victory.

On the other side, ever since he lost the 2020 election (though he still refuses to admit this) Donald Trump has hinted that he will run again in 2024. A few days ago he made the announcement here. He announced that he would announce before the midterm elections and expected he would ride the crest of a Republican landslide. That didn’t happen.

He also likely expected that once he announced that would end the race to the Republican nomination. But that hasn’t happened. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis will almost certain run. Smart money is also on former Vice President Mike Pence to run and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson.

Previous to this Mr. Trump was able to immediately halt speculation on competition but it appears his behavior may have finally come home to roost. Fox News appears to have dropped their support for Governor DeSantis and didn’t even fully carry Mr. Trump’s announcement.

So where do we go from here? Clearly a large part of the Republican Party wants Trump to drop out and give his support to DeSantis but that’s unlikely. Trump never admits defeat and never gives up. I think there is widespread fear that Trump will continue to polarize voters to the point where everyone who seeks the nomination will chew each other up until there is no viable candidate.

Trump breaks all molds and defies all expectations so predicting the future is always perilous. But if Trump is going to hit the end of the line, this may be it.

Is This What A Peaceful Election Looks Like?

Two years after every Presidential election we have another one where we choose all 435 members of the House of Representatives, 33 (or 34) members of the Senate, and a host of state governors. These elections are newsworthy but don’t garner the attention (or votes) that we see for a Presidential election.

But many of us feared this one for a few reasons:

I spoke in my last post about how Republicans expected a “red wave.” It didn’t happen, though it appears they will have a razor thin majority in the House.

This has been well documented but in 2020 President Trump loudly and consistently announced that he won the election and it was stolen from him. This was clearly untrue but he’s never seen the truth as an obstacle. In this election he handpicked several candidates for different offices. He demanded only loyalty and instructed them to refuse to accept defeat. Fortunately they didn’t follow his lead and many who loss did indeed concede.

The January 7th attempted coup d’etat clearly emboldened Trump supporters. Many of us feared they would use intimidation and threats of violence to suppress voter turnout. I’m not sure why but they didn’t.

Related to this I haven’t found widespread calls that the 2022 election was fraudulent. I’m pleased but a little puzzled.

Yesterday Mr. Trump announced he will run again in 2024. I’m a good 18 months from starting the Election 2024 Chronicles but it appears the groundwork is being laid.

Fasten your seatbelts. This will prove to be a rocky ride.

Thoughts On the Midterm Elections

It’s practically a tradition that the President’s party does poorly in the election after the Presidential election. This is partly due to the fact that virtually no President can live up to our expectations and partly due to the fact that those out of power feel more motivated to vote.

Given that and the fact that we are all dealing with inflation (ignoring the fact that the President can do very little to curb it) many of us assumed the 2022 elections would be a bloodbath for the Democrats. We were already on the razor’s edge. This Senate was divided 50/50 and Democrats hold 220 of the 435 seats in the House. Since it takes 218 votes to pass legislation this gave the Democrats only a 2 vote majority.

It was generally assumed that Democrats would lose the House, perhaps by as many as 20 or 30 seats. The final results aren’t in yet but it appears that if the Republicans do take the House it will be with only a few seats. Republicans hoped to pick up 3 or 4 seats and gain control of the Senate. Tonight it appears all but certain that the Democrats will hold the Senate and has a chance of picking up 2 seats.

So what happened? Well, a few things. Here are my thoughts:

  1. For years the Republicans ran on a platform of reversing Roe v. Wade that guarantees the right of a woman to have an abortion. In June the Supreme Court reversed Roe in Dodd v. Mississippi. This decreased many abortion opponents because, frankly, they got what they wanted. On the other hand it emboldened those who believe that women should have choice over their bodies and they turned out in large numbers to vote Democratic.
  2. The polls were simply wrong. That’s happening with some frequency and there’s an excellent story on NPR’s Planet Money. Simply put since most polling is done by phone and most people don’t answer the phone or wish to talk with pollsters it’s getting hard to acquire the necessary data.
  3. Perhaps this is the beginning of the end of the Trump era. Since his election in 2016 former President Donald Trump has worked hard to make himself the leader of the Republican party. He’s been wildly successful but his ongoing eagerness to lie about the 2020 election and many other issues may have run its course. He backed several extreme and unqualified candidates who just weren’t able to win. Turns out absolute loyalty to Trump isn’t enough

Full disclosure I’ve been predicting the end of the Trump era for several years now and this may also be premature. But the dissatisfaction
I’m seeing appears real.

Also this doesn’t mean the next two years will be easy for President Biden and the Democrats. But it could have been worse.

Remember When Nobody Wanted To Be Called A Hypocrite?

For decades the Republican party has run on a platform of overturning the Supreme Court’s 1973 decision to allow early term abortions. Earlier this year they got their wish as Roe v. Wade was overturned and the question of abortion has gone back to the states. I wrote a long opinion on this here.

We now have Republican candidates who claim to oppose abortion with spotty records. Understand I’m not opposed to people changing their opinions as that may be due to a number of reasons. Maybe they’ve simply reconsidered or they’ve had an experience that sheds new light on the issue.

But when someone says or does something that indicates that the rules don’t apply to them, well that’s hypocrisy. And it should be embarrassing.

Former NFL player Hershel Walker is running for Senate from the state of Georgia. In the last few weeks two women have come forward and claimed that they were impregnated by Mr. Walker; when he found out he pressured them to abort the pregnancy and paid for it. They’ve presented some evidence (including a copy of the check he wrote to her to cover the cost of the procedure). Mr. Walker denies both charges. He did affirm he wrote the check but claims not to remember what the money was for.

Interestingly he advocates that all abortions be illegal, even in cases of rape or incest or if the mother’s life is in danger.

I guess he believes abortion is wrong unless he’s the father.

The Trump Chronicles, Volume 157: He Never Going To Stop Making Money Off The Rest Of Us

President Trump claims to be the wealthiest President, and while nobody knows it’s generally assumed he’s correct. And while he uses that as a measure of his intelligence most of it was inherited. To quote an old sage it’s like waking up on 3rd base and claiming to have hit a triple.

I’m enough of a capitalist that I don’t begrudge anyone his wealth, though I would like people like Mr. Trump be a little more generous to those who wasn’t born to a wealthy family. What I do object to, however, is when a wealthy person preaches self sufficiency while draining money from tax payers.

The Secret Service was founded in 1865 to prosecute counterfeiters. After President McKinley was assassinated in 1901 its agents began to protect the President. The agency has since expanded to protect the President’s family and candidates running for President. This requires the protection detail to travel with the President at government expense.

In 2009 President and Mrs. Obama celebrated a “date night” in New York City. This was roundly criticized by Republicans as a waste of taxpayer money. We don’t know how much it cost but some thought the price tag (including transportation) was something north of $70,000. But by any measure President Obama didn’t personally profit from this.

When President Trump was elected he criticized his predecessor for, among other things, playing golf at government expense. As a candidate in August 2016 he said this: ““I’m going to be working for you. I’m not going to have time to play golf.” During the next four years he played golf 307 days; nearly one day in four.

Because the Secret Service needs to be in close proximity to the President they often stayed at Trump properties. Now you’d think the President would comp them those rooms or at least only charge them what any government employee would pay. You’d be wrong.

Not only is it estimated that we paid $1.4 million for those room, we’ve recently learned that the Trump organization charged as much as $1,185 per night. In 2017 his son Eric (who is afforded protection as the President’s son) stayed at Trump’s hotel in Washington D.C. He stayed there even though that hotel is a few blocks from the White House. The Secret Service, again required to be in close proximity, was charged $1,160 when the normal rate would have been $242.00.

Not only are these expenses exorbitant but they are paid directly to the Trump Organization. In other words when President Trump travels and stays at one of his properties, he profits at taxpayer expense.

I’ll remind him of this next time I see him.

The Justice Chronicles, Volume 41: Dobbs v. Jackson

In a previous post I promised to read and discuss two Supreme Court decisions that were released in June: Dobbs v. Jackson and New York State v. Bruen.

I have (finally) read through both with my trusty highlighter. I likely won’t discuss New York v. Bruen. It wasn’t as interesting as I had hoped.

On the other hand, Dobbs v. Jackson was both dense and interesting. It will be a while before I plow through another Supreme Court Decision. So let’s dive in:

Overview: You have to give me props for reading and commenting on a judgement when I never attended law school. Then again, neither did Thomas Jefferson or Abraham Lincoln. I welcome feedback as long as it is thoughtful and not obscene.

Majority Opinion

  • The majority opinion was written by Justice Samuel Alito. It was clear to me that despite his testimony that the 1973 Roe v. Wade opinion warranted respect he didn’t give it much. Much of it appeared (to me) to have been written a while ago. The state of Mississippi prohibited abortion after 15 weeks gestation; it did not ask that the states have final authority or that Roe be overturned. But Justice Alito went far beyond the facts of the case to overturn Roe. Law students are taught to find the narrowest ruling on a case.
  • He wanted to place his opinion in the vaunted arena with Brown v. Board of Education. In 1896 the Court ruled in Plessy v. Feguson that public places could be segregated (separated by race) as long as the accommodations were “separate but equal.” In 1954 the Brown decision recognized that separate was never equal and segregation was unconstitutional. Brown was seen universally as correcting the mistake of Plessy. In the same way Justice Alito felt that Roe was wrongly decided from the start and he was correcting a previous mistake.
  • Justice Alito and many of his fellow conservative jurists describe themselves as “originalists,” that when deciding a Constitutional issue we should look back to the original intent of the Constitution’s framers. This view presents a few problems, including this: the Constitution enshrines slavery (Article 1, Section 2, Clause 3). They respond by pointing out that the 13th and 14th Amendments prohibit slavery. In this context Justice Alito goes back to 1791 (when the Constitution was ratified) and 1868 (when the 14th Amendment was passed). But in the years since courts have had to adjudicate all sorts of issues that didn’t exist then. The 4th Amendment protects our “persons, houses, papers and effects” from unreasonable searches and seizures. But the courts have extended that to include our phones, cars, and computers. The 2nd Amendment ensures the existence of a “well regulated militia” but in 2008 (District of Columbia v. Heller) the court ruled that anyone could keep a firearm in his home for protection. Those of us who are not originalists see the Constitution as a living document and while the understanding of 1791 and 1868 matter, they do not hold supremacy.
  • Lest you think this is an anti court screed, allow me admit to one of Justice Alito’s points. When Justice Blackmun wrote Roe in 1973 he divided pregnancy into three trimesters with different government interest in each. Since then we’ve looked at viability (when the fetus can reasonable live outside the womb). But the trimester distinction is a legal and not medical metric and viability has changed over the years. I don’t believe this should rule when an abortion is legal. That said I think Justice Alito overreached in his decision.
  • Finally, I conclude this with a warning. When the decision came down that the right of abortion is not guaranteed by the Constitution it led to concern that other similar issues (marriage equality, consentual sex and access to birth control) may also come under scrutiny. All these issues were decided by the Supreme Court. Lest you think I’m exaggerating, this is what Justice Thomas wrote in his concurring opinion: “[I]n future cases we should reconsider all of this Courts substantive due process precedents including Griswold, Lawrence, and Obergefell. Conservative government entities may look at this as encouragement to overturn those decisions. Interestingly, Justice Thomas (who is black) is married to a white woman, and he did not include the court’s prohibition against interracial marriage in Loving v. Virginia.

Dissenting Opinion

  • Both sides acknowledged that Roe held particular respect as a previous decision; the phrase in these circumstances is Stare decisis, “to stand by those decided.” The dissenting opinion (written by Justice Stephen Breyer) argued that Roe was not a mistake and should not have been overturned.
  • The minority argued that Roe ensured that a woman has autonomy over her body and her health. Just as the government has no authority over a man’s body and health, so too with women. The fact that only women can become pregnant does not give additional government oversight to them.
  • Roe has been in effect since 1973 (nearly 50 years) and in that time women have been able to make important and permanent decisions over their lives (e.g. sexual activity and marriage). Changing the rules now places an unfair burden on women.
  • Roe also protected the private relationship between the woman and her doctor. She has a reasonable expectation of privacy and overturning Roe places someone else in the room.
  • Previous to Roe abortion was available if the woman resided in the state where abortion was legal or if she had the ability to travel. This discriminates against women who live in states that prohibit abortion and are not able to travel.

My opinion

Again, I recognize my lack of legal training. On the other hand I did read the whole thing. So here’s where I stand.

Two facts make this difficult: only women can become pregnant and we’ve never come to a consensus when a fetus becomes a person. For centuries many believed that life began when the woman could feel the baby’s movement in her womb. Scientific advances in the last century have only made things more difficult: the phrase “life begins at conception” ignores the fact that conception is a multi step process and we continually learn more about it. Pregnancy is a process and finding a fixed point where life begins continues to prove elusive.

When we think about women who seek abortions it’s too easy to label them as murderers. But by and large they are women who find themselves pregnant and believe that abortion is the only option left. Simply put, the best way to prevent abortions is to prevent unwanted or unplanned pregnancies, and we know how to achieve this. We need to teach sex education in schools and make birth control much more available. We need to teach young women that they can say no and we need to teach young men that they need to take responsibility for their actions.

I have several friends who describe themselves as “oops babies,” in other words they were unplanned but not unloved. They had the good fortune of being part of a family that could afford them (financially and emotionally). This is complicated but the more services we provide to these families the better.

Finally, despite anything you may be thinking, I am 100% pro life. I see abortion as a tragedy but allowing the courts to decide on this just makes it worse.

Thanks for reading.

The Trump Chronicles, Volume 155: No Mr. Trump, Those Documents Don’t Belong To You

In the hours after the 2016 election I began this category (The Trump Chronicles). A year and a half ago I hoped I had written my last column on that topic.

Much as I have tried to stay true to that hope but I finally couldn’t stand it anymore. I write this shortly after Mr. Trump’s home in Mar a Lago was searched by federal officials. As you can imagine our former President is decrying this “invasion” while claiming there was nothing to see.

Well, no. It appears that when he left office in 2021 he took several boxes of documents with him, including some with classified information. Despite being told over and over that White House documents belong to the American people, he insisted that they belonged to him. Since he saw himself as the supreme leader, everything belonged to him.

He had a habit of tearing papers in pieces when he was done with them, which necessitated government employees to tape them back together. You can read about it here.

Shortly after he departed the White House the National Archives noticed missing material. They contacted Mr. Trump’s staff requesting their return. They were then subpoenaed (court ordered) and the staff insisted they weren’t in possession of anything in the subpoena. The government’s last resort lay in a search warrant. They had to prove that they had probable cause to believe Mr. Trump had documents that didn’t belong to him and they did.

Particularly troubling for me is that some of those documents were classified. Since Mr. Trump spent most of his transition time (election to inauguration) trying not to leave one could easily believe that the process of stealing that information was chaotic and perhaps nobody intended to steal classified information.

But here’s what concerns me: the noose is tightening on Mr. Trump. He’s currently being investigated by the Department of Justice as well as the states of New York and Georgia on criminal charges. He’s never been one to take responsibility for his actions and I believe if indicted he will flee the United States. His primary destination has to be Russia, which explains why he supports Russia over Ukraine and continues to fawn approval from Russian President Putin.

Now imagine he flees to Russia with classified files as a bribe for asylum. Crazy? I hope so, but I’ve said this many times before: I hope I’m wrong.

Vin Scully 1927 – 2022

I don’t normally write obituaries or tributes, mostly because other writers do a better job. But a few days ago we all learned the sad, if not expected, news that Vin Scully passed away at the age of 94.

Full disclosure, I didn’t grow up a baseball fan. I grew up outside of Washington D.C. and it was a football town. There wouldn’t be a basketball or hockey team until 1974, and baseball didn’t return until 2005.

But I moved to San Diego in 1995 and in 1998 I married a diehard, lifelong fan of the Los Angeles Dodgers, I soon learned that their legendary sportscaster, Vin Scully, had been in the broadcast booth since 1950 and would stay there until 2016. Those who grew up with the words “It’s time for Dodger baseball!” will never forget how he made them feel.

It’s a cliche to say this but Vin made you feel like he was sitting next to you and there was nobody else there. He was a wealth of information but he wasn’t just a trivia buff. While all broadcasters know the names of the superstars, Vin knew about everyone. He made a point of knowing the names and stories of those making their debuts. He spoke about them as if he had known them since high school and had been rooting for them all along.

He was also a classic gentleman. Those who knew him spoke glowingly of a man who was just as kind and generous in person as he was in the broadcast booth. Without saying it you could tell that his integrity informed everything about him.

He will be missed. Rest in peace Vin.

Portland, Oregon In July: It Was Still A Great Time

Yesterday Nancy and I returned from 5 days visiting friends in Portland, Oregon. It was ghastly hot and the heat limited some of our activities but it was a wonderful trip and I pray we can go again soon.

It hasn’t been easy for the past few years to get away and COVID hasn’t helped. But with Nancy’s retirement in June it’s time. I would have liked it to be a few days longer but there’s always next time.

Our friends live in an older part of the city and their house was built in 1906 but has (mercifully) been updated all along. It was within walking distance of nearly everything and I think we walked the entire neighborhood. We saw the Japanese Garden, the Oregon Zoo, and I believe nearly every restaurant within walking distance.

If you have a chance to visit Portland, take it.

July 4, 2022: It’s Been 246 Years. How Are We Doing?

It was a temperate 72 degrees on July 4, 1776 in Philadelphia, not the image we often get of oppressive heat and stuffy rooms. On that day, in that place, something incredible happened. Fifty six British subjects signed a document that declared that they were no longer part of the British Empire but were instead an independent nation.

From the point of view of King George III (1738-1820) it was nothing short of treason. He saw this as a rebellion that he would put down and punish harshly. This document would be Exhibit A on executing these men.

These 56 were not a diverse group, at least by modern standards. They were all white, Christian (including one Catholic), and men of some wealth. Some were farmers, some were lawyers, some were merchants, but all had the wealth to gather in Philadelphia. They all had a great deal in common, including their belief in revolution.

Previous generations were told that their ultimate loyalty rested with the king (or queen) and they had the power of life or death over everyone. But a 33 year old farmer and scholar from Virginia wrote this:

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness

.

In other words we are primarily subject to God, not the king. We have rights that not even the king can violate.

We’ve made a great deal of progress in the last 246 years, but we’re far from done.

  1. We ended slavery in 1865. This was perhaps the largest task of all. The framers of the Constitution (13 years in the future) recognized that there would be no United States unless slavery were allowed to continue in the South. Slavery constituted our greatest challenge and it led to a conflict that nearly destroyed us. Today, 157 years after the abolition of slavery, we’re still reckoning with full racial equality. But the fact that most of us recognize this gives us hope.
  2. We have never reverted to governance by royalty and we have never come close. Several of our Presidents have been jeered at with the epithet “King.” If you watch the 2012 movie Lincoln he is referred to as “King Abraham Africanis I.”
  3. Freedoms of press, speech, religion, and assembly are entrenched. We think nothing of writing to the local newspaper criticizing our leaders, often not even thinking that citizens of other nations wouldn’t dare. We need to look over our shoulder when we walk into our place of worship.
  4. When we see discrimination we’ve done what we can to stop it. Women now vote. People of color can now live where they choose. Recent conflicts over marriage equality, once thought impossible, are now the law of the land.

And yes, we still have a long way to go. Today we are divided in ways we haven’t seen in our lifetimes. Good people on each side accuse others of wanting to end our democracy. But our history gives us great reason for hope.

Next year I hope I’ll be commentating on our 247th birthday. I’m confident I’ll still be hopeful.